Hi Mneagle, welcome to GIM and thanks for the encouragement. Sometimes I’m not sure if my writings are actually changing lives for the better. This is life changing stuff if you will put it to use. This bartering and horse trading thread was begun on a whim and has taken on a life of its own. I’m more surprised than anybody ! I’m now just along for the ride as other GIM members contribute their experiences too. Of course, I’m still the blabbermouth I always was.

Here is an article out this morning that outlines the deleveraging process that we are entering. It is worth a study until its implications sink in. It foretells what will be required of us in the future.

We’ve Only Just Begun ?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/ci020109.html

A couple of years ago I wrote that I expected what I called hyperstagflation. Right now there is the raging argument between hyperinflation and deflation. But we must first take a critical look at what kind of “money” we are using. The German Mark of 1922-23 which hyperinflated into oblivion as well as the Zimbabwe currency of today have the common characteristic of true fiat currency. That is, there is absolutely nothing of value attached to them except a future of added zeroes tacked behind their stated value. These currencies were hyper inflated because there was nothing to prevent them from doing so. Well, nothing except good judgment and honesty. Therefore, true/pure fiat currency has only confidence behind it. Confidence that it will not be issued in quantity beyond its relative utility as an intermediary for goods exchanged. And when that confidence is betrayed, there is no recourse. Then zeroes are chasing confidence like an adulterous husband chasing after his departing spouse. Confidence and trust cannot be restored when the marriage has been adulterated.

Throughout the world now, we have what I have called hybrid currency. It is created with an asset or debt to counter its issuance. With that in mind, how can we have hyperinflation ? Only if the assets or debts attached become worthless. The nature of this hybrid currency makes sense when we view the financial world in this light. Debts are being devalued against our hybrid currencies all over the world. The peak of markets was reached and as we slide down the slippery slope, the consequences can be ugly if you are on the wrong side of debts and obligations. Bankruptcies and tightening of finances lead to a mad scramble for “liquidity”. We all have seen that word bandied about on the internet. But what does it mean to us lowly peons ? It means that money is being sucked up all over the world in order to cover these falling debt and asset valuations. This results in companies laying off employees, moving to foreign countries for cheaper labor and decimating the economy of the citizens.

Notice that the FED and Treasury have increased the money supply at an incredible pace. They are trying to “balance” the demand for currency against all the falling collateral values. And because their issuance of more currency is joined at the hip with debt/collateral, they are constrained. Unlike pure fiat currency which can add zeroes ad infinitum until their utility as currency is exceeded by their utility as toilet paper or fireplace material. Both Germany and Zimbabwe have hyper inflated until this became fact. But note that the largest dollar bill we have is $100. Do you think we will begin to add zeroes when debt must be attached to the dollar issuance ? No, the Fed and Treasury are literally pushing on a string since there is either no more collateral to be proffered for more fiat currency or the assets themselves are of questionable value.

So has the FED come up with a way to circumvent this lack of collateral ? You betcha. The Treasury issues notes and trades them to the FED for currency. Not huge bundles of dollars but rather a few strokes on the keyboard and Voila !, liquidity flows like a river. Just how much can the FED issue ? Well, the way I see it is infinite ! The FED is trading our future and our following generations’ futures for liquidity now.

I find it most interesting that no one has asked what will be the situation after all the assets are used as collateral and everything is obligated to the FED. Will they own the earth and everything on it ? And us too ?

To put it rather indelicately, imagine a huge boil on the rear end of humanity. It is growing ever larger and more painful. The “doctor” keeps saying to take this injection and it will go away in time. He has a conflict in interest in that if he were to lance the boil and drain off the poison, the problem would be solved and he wouldn’t be able to continue making money from continued patient visits. The serious problem is that, in time, this boil will become gangrenous and infect the bloodstream and become systematic. The patient would become weakened and in jeopardy of dieing. By the way, the injection is the same as the infection, just more of the same.

You can’t extinguish debt with more debt just as you can‘t cure an infection with more infection. The FED as doctor has a conflict of interest. They don’t want to lose control however the nature of their prescribed medication is to flood the patient with more of the same. To lance the boil would involve losing reserve currency status and therefore their income stream. Only a money ABSOLUTELY backed by something of recognized value and ENFORCED on penalty of death will lance this dangerous boil. America’s forefathers wrote of this in the early days of our nation. The best cure would be to have the intrinsic value contained within the money itself. Hmmm…. What could this be ? I wonder. Oh yeah, gold and silver and copper for the small change. Geee, didn’t we have this in the past ? And didn’t it work well ? Hmmm..again. Why did it end ? Did gold and silver fail mankind as a form of money ? No; more like mankind failed gold and silver as money.

And these statements that there is not enough gold and silver in the world to satisfy the needs of over 6 billion souls, I say that this is balderdash (always wanted to sneak that word into the conversation; makes me sound like some ancient cottonhead with a huge handlebar moustache and a Meerschaum pipe with aromatic smoke lazily drifting upward). Anyway, I digress. The beauty of gold and silver is that they are infinitely divisible. A grain of gold within a coin could have an intrinsic value in line with normal purchases. Doesn’t have to be a troy ounce or a fraction thereof. That way, the value would be held in the hand rather than some distant promises which, by the way, can be broken. And boy ! Have they ever been broken.

Have you asked yourself why the central banks still hold gold as their reserve ? If they did not believe in gold as an absolute value, why not sell it for some fiat currency and have all that new currency for making more deals ? They are not idiots; they know that gold and silver have value within themselves and their holding gold, even as “window dressing”, will save them as their fiat currency once again fails humanity. And so on to the next fiat failure. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Did you see the gold wanted ad during the Superbowl game ? Hmmm..once more. Somebody must be making a pile of dough to have paid for such an expensive ad. Either that or it is a desperate attempt to suck up all the gold laying around before things collapse and we have an honest money. Yeah, right ! Like that is going to happen. But I can dream, can’t I ? What’s the real price of an ounce of gold against the quantity of fiat currency out there ? I read that it would have to be as high as about $111,000 per ounce. Pretty whacked out, eh ?

And when I see these ads on TV I wonder what those selling their gold will think in a year or two. Baah ! They won’t think since they weren’t thinking when they parted with their gold in the first place. Stupid is as stupid does. As J.P. Morgan said “ONLY gold and silver are money”.

With all this talk of using ancient DNA to bring back extinct creatures, I would like to bring back our forefathers to hear what they think of our current situation. Whoops ! I don’t have to do that but only read what they left us in their writings. Plenty of warnings so they probably knew how stupid we would get with the freedom they left us with. What part of the second amendment “shall not be infringed” do our lawmakers NOT understand ? Double ugh

Gotta go now. Next post will be about Ponce and some of his sharp deal making. A plan behind the plan behind the plan is his motto. And “If you don’t hold it. You don’t own it” is his byword.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. I write about precious metals and currency in this bartering and horse trading thread because their understanding is integral to our bettering our defensive positions for the future. I’d hate to be holding nothing but paper fiat currency when the music stops.

Preparedness Through Tapping in to the Craig's List Culture: Doing Well by Doing Good, by D.S.

http://www.survivalblog.com/2009/02/...tapping_i.html

Preparedness Through Tapping in to the Craig's List Culture: Doing Well by Doing Good, by D.S.


I do not consider myself an expert on Craigslist.org. However, I do cruise our local Craigslist several times a day as I am fascinated with what people are buying, looking for and selling. It helps me keep a pulse on our local economy that I don't get through the Mainstream Media. To that point, I have noticed a strong uptick, since the New Year, of people selling anything of value that they can. This tells me people are really starting to hurt from this incipient Economic Depression.

On items I have an interest in I call or e-mail to enquire. Lately, the conversation has veered towards why folks are selling stuff. "I am getting rid of my 'stuff' as I don't know what the economy is going to do." "My husband lost his job." "I have a small business but my clients are not paying me what they owe me."

What has also started happening, at least from my perspective, is more and more folks want to barter goods than simply accept cash. 120 bales of horse hay sounds better to them than $1,200. Firewood has become huge as a barter item as has quality hay and, of course, firearms. Quality reliable cars for less than $2,000 are very desirable. Items like Sterling silver tea sets and Grandma's china are falling fast.

I am not sure when I began doing this, but in the past few months I started offering folks alternatives to fiat money. 'Would you prefer payment in firewood, Sir, or some other item, or is cash what you are looking for?' I had no set protocol, I made it up as I went along, but pretty soon I started crystallizing some thoughts on bartering on Craigslist. Here they are:

1. Say what you can do and do what you say.

2. "No, thank you." is a great response. Never be afraid to say "No" if the deal does not work for you.

3. Craigslist is not a community in the sense that one seller does not (often) hear directly from another on your reputation. But still, people can tell if you are honest or are looking to skin them. Act Honorably always.

4. Get clear on what your natural assets are that you have to trade. One of mine is firewood.

5. Timing can be everything - scan Craigslist frequently in your desired categories since you want to be (to use an old Army Cav expression) 'the firstest with the mostest!'

6. When I see a particularly nice item in the 'free' category I often inquire if I might make a small charitable contribution to the charity of their choice as appreciation of their item. I do this for one primary reason - it is the right thing to do. It has had the ancillary benefit of having 'jumped me to the front of the line' on some items. I offered my desire to donate to a Craigslister for three free garage doors. He responded quickly that I was the only person to do so, and that it touched his heart. He even delivered the doors to our ranch (I can no longer drive as a Disabled Vet). I subsequently donated to the local food-bank.

7. Always say please and thank you. Honest and sincere appreciation is a scarce commodity today.

8. Never begrudge folks an honest profit. If someone makes great money from an item you swapped or sold - congratulate them!

9. I use Ronald Reagan's motto: 'Trust, but verify.' I start off assuming I can trust folks. But I always verify that what they are telling me is so.

10. Have fun! As long as you are helping others get what they want, you'll likely always get what you want. That is satisfying from a servant's heart perspective, and you meet a lot of nice people (not all though) while you are building up your supplies and stores for your retreat.


The following are not a 'bragging' example. I hope you will simply see these as examples of what is possible:

Four weeks ago I found a Mercedes 300TD wagon for sale ($3,000) or trade. I enquired to see if it was still available, and to my happy surprise, it still was. The young man (a survivalist) was moving to Belize with his wife and young son and needed 'camping gear.' I asked what he really wanted and his reply was 'a really good tent to live in while we build our house, and some nice backpacks.' I have been a Boy Scout Leader for 20+ years and have way too much camping gear. I offered him a Golite backpack (acquired from Craigslist for $40 - originally retailed at $190) and a [US Army surplus] GP Medium Tent (like the tents one would see in the old television series MASH)

I paid nothing for the tent as I had bartered, through Craigslist, for two of these GP medium tents for allowing a fellow to come hunt Elk on our property. Very nice man, very generous, two amazing high quality canvas tents with all the poles. As an aside, he never came to hunt though I wish he had.

As I type this, I am waiting for a fellow (a Senior NCO recently returned from Iraq) to come over for three cords of firewood. He is giving us two barely-used Australian saddles and two snowmobiles. The snowmobiles may need a good cleaning and rebuild, but I have 30 acres of dense woods that need to be cut back for fire safety - I suspect I can find someone to help rebuild the snowmobiles in trade for firewood.

Bear in mind, please, that I don't actually do the cutting of the firewood. My left arm is pretty weak from nerve damage and holding a chain-saw really hurts. So, again, I barter. If folks need wood I ask that they cut and split a cord for me and they, may then, cut a cord for themselves. Sadly, I used to offer firewood to folks if they'd come help me put some up. After they got their firewood I never saw them again. So, now, I get 'paid' up front.

I may be close to closing a deal, today, for a beautiful Savage shotgun that looks like a Browning A5. My cost? Giving the owner permission to come hunt on our property for Elk. We both get something we really want and would be tickled that the other loves what they get!

Reloading equipment 'grab bag' I had a gentleman over this past week looking at antiques I had in our basement that had simply been gathering dust. He mentioned, that right before he came over he had picked up a box of RCBS dies (new in the box) and three reloading presses. I swapped an antique table of my grandmother's for the box of reloading gear. . After going through it I'll have several dies I won't use (.243 Winchester, 7mm Mauser, etc.) that I can trade for items I do want (clean brass, Nosler or Barnes bullets, etc). I met the man by looking through Craigslist collectibles to see who was selling items similar to what I had to sell.

Final example: A small herd of registered purebred Longhorn Cattle. A lady listed four Longhorns for $1,300 on Craigslist. She was willing, according to her listing, to barter for items other than cash. After talking with her on the phone I offered her any combination of hay, firewood, firearms,etc. The two cows are bred and expected to calve this spring around May. So, with items I have accumulated from others by bartering, and maybe $300 in cash, God willing, I will own six purebred Longhorns.

I have helped others heat their house, hunt for meat for their family, feed their livestock hay, and house their family while they build their home.
That is pretty cool! The satisfaction I receive from helping those folks is immense.


Here is a tally of what I have received (or am about to) :

4 registered Longhorns (two due to calve)
An 1987 Mercedes 300 TD wagon
2 snowmobiles
A beautiful Savage shotgun
Reloading equipment
2 Australian saddles

Bartering is a very valuable skill to learn for a grid-down world. It is far better to learn it now when the stakes are not nearly as high. Be willing to make mistakes and have fun. And please, if there are bartering skills that you think should be mentioned to supplement those that have already been discussed in SurvivalBlog, please e-mail them to Jim.

Go out and barter now, and do well by doing good! - D.S.

Excellent article Quixote2. Thanks. It seems that we are on the threshold of a great increase in bartering. Around here in the Pacific Northwest, hardly anybody seems to have any money for anything except food and gas and their monthly bills. I would guess that this has become more pronounced in the last 6 months, coinciding with last fall’s market dump. Maybe they have money but are afraid to spend it for fear of the future.

I’ve been noticing sellers on Craigslist offering some small items for as little as two or three bucks. It seems that this isn’t worth the few dollars when considering the time and effort. And I’m sure I don’t “get it”, probably because I haven’t been this desperate in a long time. It’s all relative; there was a time when $10 would mean the difference whether I would eat or get the gas to go to work until payday. In fact, right now I’m just doing all I can to keep up with the bills and restocking the business inventory. At least I’ve been able to buy several hundred dollars worth of food preps lately. So don’t think I’m sitting on some huge pile of cash and PMs. I’m still watching the pennies and slowly accumulating for the future, a lifestyle I’ve followed for many years. My old boss used to say watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.

All you who have been prepping are doing double duty financially; paying the bills AND buying for the future. AND doing this in a time of high inflation and massive layoffs. Wow ! That’s a tall order.

Here’s a thread on Timebomb2000 with some things to think about :

What's currently happening at my grocery store...

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=321236

Switching gears, here is the post I promised about Ponce’s sharp deal making.

Ponce lives in a small town with the majority of locals on welfare. Sometimes people move here and retire and then pass on. The local thrift store seems to get a lot of quality clothing and other items, mostly donated. But with the majority of locals without any money to buy much beyond food, the thrift store is busting out with merchandise.

Enter Ponce. He lives frugally. Well, frugal isn’t really the best way to describe him. He has more income than expenses and therefore has discretionary money. He designed it this way by planning ahead and setting goals. You remember discretionary money, don’t you ? I can even pinpoint the month when I recognized that it has essentially disappeared. It was July, 1997.

Anyone with discretionary money can spend it but Ponce invests instead. I have noticed that most everything he buys can be resold for more later. Usually a LOT more. You vant examples ? I got examples ! Oy vey I got plenty !

All the clothes that be stuffed in a plastic shopping bag costs $2. That’s a dozen pants or shirts or sweaters, maybe more. Pants like Haggar, Levi, Lee, Manhattan. About 16 cents per pair of pants, shirts or sweaters. About 6-7% of the clothes still have the new price tags hanging from them. Strange; I’ve never seen that where I live.

Ponce got a beautiful suit with vest and two pairs of pants. It was a Baccarat label by Christian Dior. Cost ? 85 cents.

He has been doing this for a while to where he now has over 120 bags of clothing ! And he is still buying more bags of clothing regularly. He goes to the thrift store in the morning and returns in the afternoon when there is another cashier there. Shouldn’t be too obvious.

Remember how the Baltic Dry index fell off the cliff ? Without shipping, how long will clothing continue to be imported ? Not sure what will transpire in the next months but I am watching closely. Ponce says that even if he were to sell his clothing at a swap meet, he would be making 10 to 20 times what he paid. And as I have written, we are moving from form to function in our society. People won’t buy a new pair of pants for $20 or more in the surviving stores when they can get a pair for one tenth that from Ponce.

There are also 500 vinyl records for 10 cents each and a couple of thousand books for 25 cents each. Outside there is a large box full of free clothing.

Ponce also got 7 mixers and 5 coffee makers for $2 to $3 each. A 32 piece set of China for $5 was irresistible as well as a 20 piece set of Corelle for $3.

Ponce said that he went to a local garage sale and the lady was selling some clothing for about $5 each. He noticed that the thrift store clothing size tags were still on a few. He mentioned this to the lady and she smiled sheepishly. Good for her, I say. But take all of the thrift store tags off before putting the clothes out for sale. After all, yours is a different “store” now. And you never know when some observing soul like Ponce will catch you in the act.

Those of you reading this I invite to go to your local thrift stores and look for the bargains and post here with your findings.

In a few months I expect that this will be the year of “The great American Garage Sale”. In the meanwhile we can make a list of things we need as well as items we can make a profit from.

Best wishes,

agnut

Hey AGNUT,

Great point about clothing and shipping. We are all so used to cheap imported Chinese goods and have become dependent on them. But there are truly cheaper and equal substitutes from thrift stores, garage sales and flea markets.

Just felt that I'd interject some clothing info as that is currently the industry that I am in full time.

Most of our distributors have their production in Mexico although we still get Cambodian and Madagascar made goods from the same distributor. Most is made in Mexico by our main distributor.

Not saying that Mexixo is a safer bet for imports because the Mexican government is threatening economic warfare as a result of the cancelling of the NAFTA Mexican trucking program. This would (probably will) become a price mover as well as a scarcity issue in the near future.

But Most of our garments come from cross border shipping from Mexico. I will have to check into whether and how much of those same goods comes from short distance maritime transport. Shipping rates dictate but I am pretty sure that we rely primarily on ground transport.

Asian clothing has been the most price competetive in the past.

I went to Men's Wearhouse yesterday to browse price and country of origin and saw a huge difference from the past as many more of these garments were also Mexican made and were the better value over the Chinese made garments.

If we are relying so heavily on Mexican made goods and the Mexican Gove makes good on it's promise then we could definitley see a shift towards thrift that you are mentioning and in some ways in my industry that is already happening.

Great info and topic AGNUT.

SIN

Hi and thanks for the post Sindgefallen. With “virtual” martial law being enacted around Tijuana and other areas, it may be only a matter of time before goods become disrupted. Hope not but the Mexican government has their hands full in maintaining control. Heads are rolling. Yeah, I know, sick bastard that I am.

My sons and I have been out of the new clothing market for several years. Well, except for socks, underwear and shoes. There is so much available at thrift stores and garage sales. And as I keep saying, the coming summer and fall should prove to be a bonanza with the way the economy is going. I suspect that the fall will be the best for us “total dirt bags”, so don’t be in any hurry to grab the first bargain you see. It may be cheaper as the months and downward spiral unfold.

*********************
Pyramiding a fortune; what does it mean and how is it done ?

Many years ago my father told me of the marvels of compound interest. How an investment could pyramid into a fortune in the long run.

He was right for those times. But times have changed. The interest one may get these days fail miserably when adding in true inflation. And each year of a long term investment only compound the losses in purchasing power. I would call it “con”pounding; it is an obvious con game, a guaranteed confiscation of purchasing power through the years.

In addition, one must subtract income taxes from gross interest earned. Adding insult to injury.

A final consideration is that one’s capital is at risk due to future uncertainties. Things like the precariousness of the dollar’s very viability. Losing reserve currency status or a hefty devaluation of the dollar are but two possibilities.

So what to do.

First, forget about investing for interest accrued. Not until this interest rate is greater than the true inflation rate ( and don’t believe what you see coming from the mainstrean media but rather from shadowstats website, about 14% currently) plus the two risks mentioned above. When will this happen ? I haven’t a clue but I do believe that it will be far into the future.

Now that I have hopefully demolished/squashed your desire to “invest” (really, “divest” as in lose your butt in a seemingly dignified manner) for an interest rate return, the options left are to buy and sell in the stock markets, invest in commodities (physical gold and silver in particular) and deal making.

The first, buying and selling in the stock market is like putting your hand in a garbage disposal in search of sustenance with a sadist at the on-off switch. A meat grinder and you’re the meat. And much like in Las Vegas (Lost Wages), stock winners scream at the top of their lungs when they win but their silence is deafening when they lose. It’s actually the bandwagon technique to convince others to get aboard. Remember that for every winner there must be more than one loser. As in Las Vegas, the stock market dealers must get their cut or commission. Also, the dealers know the odds in Las Vegas. But there is an even more insidious twist in the stock markets. I have been seeing reports that insiders know the stop losses placed on a particular stock. And as soon as these stop losses are hit, the stock is sold. Usually just before it takes off upward. Thus giving the rewards to the insiders; not you the outsider. Get the message ?

The second, investing in commodities, can be done in a variety of ways. Any commodity investing involving paper documents carries risks. Always remember Ponce’s quote “If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it”. Any paper promises mean that there is someone between you and what you think you have invested in. And it is usually a chain of several parties, multiplying the risk of your receiving what you thought you had invested in.

How about an example to further expose the risks inherent in such paper shuffling? Suppose you had bought a gold ETF or a silver ETF ? Sounds good; you’re sitting back all fat and happy thinking that you are in the precious metal market. But are you REALLY ?

You decide to sell with some profits. So you call your broker and give a sell signal. He sells for you and deposits the funds in your brokerage account. Maybe you leave it there for further investment opportunities. But it is still in someone else’s hands. And getting paid interest which is far, far below TRUE inflation. But aha ! You instead decide that you want to have your money transferred to you bank account where you can have better control of your money. How much time does it take to notify your broker, sell a stock, transfer the money into your brokerage account, transfer your money into your bank account and lastly withdraw your money into paper bills in your own hands ?

But it isn’t over yet, not by a long shot. You are now holding paper dollars which are shrinking at a yearly rate of about 14% according to shadowstats.

And your former gold and silver ETF stocks were representations of physical precious metals supposedly held in storage to back up your investment.

Your next task must be to find physical silver and gold for sale. Are premiums over spot high ? Are precious metals available in the quantity you want ?

And the possibility of Govt confiscation ? Do you think they wouldn’t confiscate the ETF gold and silver ? Such an easy plum to pick, whereas private individual physical holdings would be a nightmare to enforce confiscation.

If you don’t hold it, you don’t REALLY own it ! Wake up and quit deluding yourself. Right now we are playing musical chairs but when the music stops, you better have a chair reserved in advance. Otherwise you will either wear yourself out, standing around forever or falling flat on your ass ! But this ain’t a party game; we are positioning ourselves for where we want to be in the foreseeable future. We are talking about the quality of rest of our lives.

What I believe is coming will separate those who prepared from those who prepared PROPERLY. This is a harsh reality about which we all must think long and deeply.

For years I have been saying that only about one is a thousand is prepared to any extent. But out of this one in a thousand, how many either have already “bugged out” to a safe retreat away from population centers ? If one in a thousand of these preppers is at this time at their retreat place, this would mean that only one in a million of the U.S. population is in place. That would work out to only 330 individuals nationwide ! I may be just throwing out outrageous figures here but how many people do you know who have actually bugged out ?

Of course, there are some preppers who have a bugout retreat all set up and ready to go. But if there were to be some kind of catastrophe that prevented them from being able to travel to their retreat, they would be stuck in the city with all the sheeple. And it doesn’t take much imagination to see what things would be like within a matter of days.

I don’t mean to alarm you but this is what happens when we make assumptions about the future. The old saying goes “assume makes an ass out of you and me”. My advice is to look around and think long and hard about how you can improve your options. Right now. Don’t put it off a day.

The third investment is in precious metals, one close to my heart (and grubby hands). When looking back through thousands of years of mankind’s history, gold and silver were the ultimate form of refuge in times of calamity. Just because precious metals have been denigrated by the media doesn’t mean that they will not once again prove to be a safe haven. Through the hundreds of years and hundreds of times tried, fiat currency has a batting record of ZERO while gold and silver have batted 1,000.

By the way, we do not have what is commonly referred to as fiat currency. We actually have what I call hybrid fiat currency. It is born in debt, debt money, whereas true fiat currency is created with no collateral debt attached. In 1922-23 Germany, the Mark was true fiat currency. So the government was free to add zeroes to the currency, devaluing it inversely to the zeroes and quantity of over issuance added.

We can’t do that to the dollar under the current system. But we can devalue the dollar through over issuance. The FED and treasury are creating trillions of dollars seemingly out of thin air and using that to reliquify the banks and big business as well as Wall Street. Practically nothing is getting to the man on the street.

And how are these trillions being created ? Well, remember that with our hybrid fiat currency, it has to have some debt attached. The debt attached is in the form of Treasury notes being given to the Federal Reserve. And this is a not so stealthy method of indebting the citizenry as well as future generations. Hell, we can’t afford the interest payments on what we have “borrowed” from the FED in the past, much less ever pay off the principal. What sense does it make to borrow more ?

Mark my words; there is a breaking point coming. You can pull downward on a branch only so far and then it snaps suddenly without warning. After that point, nothing can reattach it to the tree trunk and continue the branch’s life. We face the specter of the dollar branch being suddenly broken away from the international banking trunk. All it will take is for other countries to refuse to buy our Treasury bonds. In fact, it’s already happening with China, Russia and others refusing to buy more Treasury notes. Some mysterious Caribbean banks have been partially taking up the slack. Makes me wonder whose money that is. And Hillary was just in China begging the Chinese to continue to buy our Treasury bonds. Pretty sad and revealing if you ask me. I hope the rumor is false that she has pledged our land through eminent domain.

Here’s an article that best describes what I have been warning about for a long time. Hyperstagflation. Prices rising while wage increases lag. It doesn’t happen rapidly (hopefully) but rather grinds on through the months and years until the populace becomes aware that they have been herded into the next lower class. Hyperstagflation is an insidious confiscation of our labor. It doesn’t get much notice but we all should be aware of its cancerous metastasizing throughout society. In retrospect it will be like Warren Buffett’s quote, “It is only when the tide goes out that you discover who is swimming without trunks”.

Depression And Inflation
By Steve Saville

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...lle030309.html

Forget hyperinflation; our hybrid currency system isn’t geared for it. For it to happen, we would need wheelbarrows to haul bundles of paper currency to the store for a loaf of bread. Happened in 1922-3 Germany and Zimbabwe currently but don’t expect it here in the U.S. However if a total collapse of the currency were to happen, what would you expect ? A wheelbarrow of hundred dollar bills ? C’mon, who would have that kind of dollar volume ? Nobody !

People are reacting out of necessity but not really waking up to understanding this hyperstagflationary grinding process. The following article title would be funny if it weren’t for the fact that the continuance of this process ends in desperation for survival.


Cheap is Chic During a Recession
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=324768

Bartering and horse trading is also in a process; one of becoming more important as one of our survival skills. Whereas in past years, bartering and horse trading was a method of enriching our lives and controlling our finances, in the future it will be absolutely crucial to have in order to maintain some semblance of financial continuity in our lives. It is actually an all encompassing lifestyle, one we should use to our advantage in all our waking hours.

I can’t make it any more plain than that and I hope we all will endeavor to live this lifestyle to its utmost and therefore reap the rewards. They are basically financial but so much emanates from this that it flows throughout our lives. Think generosity, caring for loved ones, reaching out to the needy and disabled. Think security through the years. Think of all the interpersonal connections you will make. Think having the reserves to take advantage of profitable deals. Think of freedom and power over your own life. There’s even bragging rights but I would keep this quiet; envy goes wild in hard times. In most cases it takes money to make money. If you are flatass broke you can’t do a thing but wait for the hyper stagflation meat wagon to pick up your remains.

And to paraphrase Ben Franklin, never forget that a penny saved is actually two pennies that had been earned. Remember that in Ben Franklin’s day, the governments weren’t taking half of your earnings. So now you have to earn twice what you have left to spend. Don’t get mad, get even by wise bartering and horse trading. There’s not a damn thing the government can do about your buying a coat at a garage sale for $2 that was $80 in the store. And that you had to gross earn $160 before taxes. So spending $2 instead of spending an equivalent of $160 for a savings of $158 isn’t too shabby.

The name of the buying and reselling game during currency devaluation is to obtain goods valued far above the true inflation rate. And always have deals in the works. I have a few right now and will write about them after they are consummated. Sometimes deals fall through and that is a good reason to try to always have your dance card full.

If you will use your brainpower, you will easily be able to pyramid a fortune. Even passive bartering such as saving money from buying things you need can amount to thousands of dollars per year that can remain in your pocket. Don’t depend on others to do it for you.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. Was it a coincidence that at the same time the markets fell, the banks also fell and “investors” ran to treasury bonds ? Probably, but it looked liked a setup at first; like being herded where TPTB wanted them to go. Why run to the banks if they were judged unsafe ? Even treasury notes with pitiful interest offered were adjudged a safe haven. Wow !!!

Too bad so few had the sense to run to the safe haven of precious metals. Oh well, there’s nothing common about common sense.

Hi again; my computer has been acting up and is now back on line. I threatened it with a hammer but I guess it wasn’t impressed until I brought out the old chain saw.

I think it’s about time to address the (un)real estate market. I’ve noticed several posts here on GIM wondering if it is time to buy a piece of property. This is a highly emotionally charged issue. I am wary of predicting future scenarios; as Yogi Berra once said, “Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future”.

Some time ago I stated that I believed that in the future, at some times and some places, real estate would be worth LESS THAN ZERO.

Before you go and get your panties all in a bunch, there is historical precedence for this happening. Of course, some factors need to be in place for this to become reality.

Here’s an article that most closely states what I expect in the future, although I am a bit less positive (if you could call it that).

Endgame 6: Housing As Shelter, Not Speculation   (January 27, 2009)
By Charles Hugh Smith

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan09/...e-RE01-09.html


Since housing is the largest purchase most make in their lives, I think a thorough investigation is in order.

Much more to come as time permits. I welcome comments in the meantime. But please, no bricks thrown through my front window from you who are working in the unreal estate industry.

Best wishes,

Agnut

Glad you're back!

Real estate has been operating on the "Principle of the Bigger Fool" for at least the last 45 years.

The key is the phrase is Smith's "shelter, not speculation."

Glad to be back MNeagle.

That’s right maljunulo. A house is a home; not an ATM machine. Imagine having to buy a house cash outright. Cheap credit enabled the “bigger fools” to create this (un)real estate bubble. What worked in the past won’t in the future. The same goes for employment.

Just this morning I was talking with my older son. I told him that it has become obvious that those who have the best chance to prosper/survive in hard times will be those who know how to fix things, work with their hands. Most of the paper pushers will be standing in the bread lines.

I seems paradoxical that a young person with hardly any experience has to make career choices that will affect the rest of his life. Career counseling may help but I never found it a benefit; I had to find my own way. When I was going to college in the late ‘60s, I had thoughts of becoming a biology teacher. Probably because of the influence of my high school biology teacher; she was an absolute gem and there wasn’t a day that we didn’t have something uproariously funny occurring. Looking back, I think I had a crush on her.

I went to college for 4 years, finally majoring in business management (don‘t ask how that came about; I don‘t know either), and dropped out in the middle of my senior year. I just couldn’t stand it any more. I tried working in management training but soon discovered how powerless I was within a corporate structure. I quit after a year and had a job in the wings working as a mechanic in a MG/Jaguar dealership. That was in 1971. I’ve been in auto mechanics ever since. And I wouldn’t change a thing if I could. I guess I’m blessed to have found where I belong.

This bartering and horse trading thread came about quite by accident just like the silver musing series. My experiences in trading comic books and being the school’s bubble gum “pusher” in 7th grade got me off to an early start. I even had a hollowed out book to conceal the long packages of Bazooka bubble gum; bought them for 5 cents and sold them for 10 cents. And my long winter coat had a hole in the left pocket where I could carry even more. I learned the hard way that the authorities keep a watchful eye. When caught selling bubble gum or even caught chewing it, I was made to eat a spoonful of cayenne pepper as punishment. This was back in 1959 when I lived on Adak island in the Aleutians. Nowadays such punishment would have been in the newspapers. How times have changed. I guess I was a sort of drug dealer; offering a sugar high !

On the homestead front, we’re expanding the garden and looking to plant fruit trees for the coming years. The dozen baby chicks we got a month ago are getting big and we have moved them from the living room pen to the henhouse. I can’t tell you how much having those young hens around has been good for my family. There is something deep, simple and basic about having a large garden and some chickens. My sons are excellent with gardening and caring for chickens. With chopping and splitting firewood for the winters and all the rest that has to be done around here, we are rapidly becoming “country folk”. HaHa

What I have just written about is an example of a journey that we all must take in our own way and circumstances. It is highly individual for each of us; it becomes the story of our lives. It is paramount that we get out there and gain experiences as much as possible. Not to only find things that we want to do but things we will want to avoid in the future. Seek and ye shall find. It’s all good.

Right now I’m eating some slices of homemade bread. We grind the wheat berries to make the flour and sometimes add in dates and nuts. Two slices with butter and jam and its like a meal in itself. Nothing like what you buy in the supermarkets. Pure heaven. I recommend it highly.


A couple of family members went to a garage/estate sale the other day and they cleaned up ! It was exciting to hear of their treasures found. Yeah, It’s like a treasure hunt now that I think about it. Maybe that’s the best way to think about bargain hunting. A extension ladder that would cost over $200 new for $25. And tax free too ! A tool box full of Craftsman wrenches and sockets for a dollar ! And the beat goes on.

Hey, if these examples don’t get you going, you better check your pulse !

Here’s a Detroit real estate website I found interesting :

http://www.realtor.com/realestateand...mily-home/pg-7

Lots of houses for sale dirt cheap. Of course, would you want to live there ? But I wonder if parts of the rest of our country will follow suit if their local employment becomes as bad as Detroit. I have been watching and waiting for opportunities for many years but an area may have to become like a war zone before prices would fall through the floor. I guess I will have to see the lay of the land at that time as well as surmise what the future will hold. Not an easy call but those with the vision can recognize the potentials.

You might want to look into bank foreclosures as opposed to tax foreclosures. Different rules apply that could make you a fortune.

Gotta go; will continue to write more real estate stuff as time permits.

Best wishes,

Agnut

Hey! Wake up out there!
The first wave of the pre-depression yard sales is about to begin (I guess it has begin).
Get Out There! Look sharp – GREAT deals are ready to made right now. Remember, don’t forget to ask “You got anything else for sale?”
You never know what they might bring out.
If he asks you “Like what?” You have to be ready to tell him what you would like to find most.
Say; silver,
reloading equipment,
guns,
knives,
camping equipment…
— you know have a short list.
And have cash, be ready to deal and know what things are worth.

bf

Hi bottom feeder. Good to hear from you.

Yeah, you have it in a nutshell there. Some other ideas come to mind that will “grease the rails” so to speak.

First, be there before their garage sale/estate sale opens. The best deals are snapped up first. There isn’t a much sadder scenario than to be going into a sale with earlier buyers leaving with armloads of goodies. It should only take one experience of this happening to you for you to get the message. It has happened to me and I am ever mindful when facing the weekend and bargains to be had. I do have to admit that I am lazy sometimes and don’t get to the garage sale until long after it has opened. I still find good deals but the GREAT deals are there at the opening.

Second, arrive with an attitude that you are in a treasure hunt. Happy, keenly observant, conversational and open to possibilities. A surprise party held in your honor; the potential buyer. But what sellers don’t know is that you have the tables turned on them by what is in your knowledge. As they say, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

Third, you aren’t just looking for yourself but also for family, friends and potential buyers of whatever you may purchase. I have gotten many items that I have either gifted or sold to people I know. This mindset greatly widens your scope

Fourth, know the difference between want and need.

Fifth, when considering an item, think of its future value. We here at GIM read many articles and have a pretty good handle on what the future holds. A bag of flaming poop on the porch comes to mind. Oh, those FED and bankster pranksters are at it again !

Sixth, NEVER talk yourself out of going out in search of deals. They have always been out there in the past and will always be out there in the future. How could you talk yourself out of going on the search ? “Oooh, it’s cold outside.” Woosie ! “It’s raining.” Get an umbrella (and some cajones too). “I don’t have any money to buy with.” Bullshit ! If you have only a couple of dollars to spend, you may miss the opportunity of finding a $200 London Fog jacket for $2. I know; I have three of these finely made jackets. The first I bought about 25 years ago. It was about $100 then. The other two I found in the last couple of years at garage sales for about $2 each.

And the big killer, “It’s the weekend and I deserve to relax on my time off.” Talk about a self defeating attitude. Get your head out of your derriere and realize that your job is in actuality there to provide you with the foundation/stability to springboard ahead with finding bargains. You work all week long at a job that you may hate. Putting up with all kinds of crap. Why do you do this ? To merely pay the bills ? Don’t you deserve it to get even with the system ? And how can you do this ? Simple. By opting out of the consumerist society in which we all live. Paying retail is for the unaware sheeple.

If you are waiting for the world to hand you a fortune, you have it backwards. The world is waiting for you to Take your fortune.

Seventh, when looking at an item, think of all the possibilities it offers. Last week I bought a wood plane for $100. It wasn’t the cheap China machine but a larger semi industrial American made model. You are probably wondering what the heck I am doing buying a wood plane. Well, in the first place, it was dirt cheap for what it was. I could either sell it for a profit OR use it for a crazy project I have had in the back of my mind for years. I could take old broken furniture and run it through the plane and make nice, finished wood for projects for myself of for sale to woodworkers. Imagine having planks of old oak, walnut, cherry and other hardwoods. That stuff doesn’t grow on trees, ya know.I even convinced the seller to let me have a heavy industrial extension cord for 5 bucks since I would need it for the plane I had just bought.

Eighth, if you see items you suspect you may want later, get the seller’s phone number. And as you said bottom feeder, have a list of items you sre looking for. Ask the seller if he has any of them. But also ask if he knows anybody else who may have them. I have been successful with this on a limited basis.

Ninth, always be mindful that it is as easy to make a $10 deal as it is to make a $10,000 deal. Take courage and buy wisely so that you may amass a small fortune in order to take advantage of the bigger deals. These bigger deals are where money works for you instead of you working for money. Also there aren’t many buyers out there with the resources to be able to take advantage of these deals. So you have less competition and therefore may have greater opportunity to bargain for a deeper discount.

In Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, John Galt chose to opt out of the system. My belief is to stand aside the system and study it with the cold calculation a wolf would in catching game. I’m not actually IN the system but on the periphery, picking off the weak and unaware. Hey ! It’s the survival of the fittest.

As Mogambo Guru says, “Wheee; this investing stuff is easy !”

Invest in yourself. You have a brain that is waiting for you to use it in innovative ways you never realized.

Gotta go; more later.

Best wishes,

Agnut

“The unbridled lust for money and power is an as yet unrecognized form of mental illness.”

Does that clear up some of the confusion in this world ? The asylum is being run by the inmates.

You are a sane person in an insane world; trying to make sense of it. Don’t do that; just understand and take it for what it is. And make for yourself whatever sanity you want in your own world.

PPP ( planning predetermines performance )

__________________

Hey Canadian-guerilla. I’ve been busy and felt guilty of neglecting the silver musing series. This one would be a good read for us barterers and horse traders. Actually, anything that is a bargain is on topic.

I wrote the following a couple of weeks ago and am posting it before it ages too far to digest.

================================================== =========
A current article showing food commodities’ price increases.

Agrifood Thoughts
By Ned Schmidt

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0421.html

Maybe some passive food bartering and horse trading should be put on the front burner. Lately I’ve watched as supermarket prices have increased dramatically

================================================== ===
A good read that emphasizes the real purchasing power against the illusion of nominal value. Ares posted this here on GIM. Thanks for the heads up.


Why Housing Is Not Coming Back
By John Carney and Charles Hughes Smith

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-h...ng-back-2009-4

So when is it a good time to buy real estate ? When it is grossly undervalued. And under what circumstances would that occur ? You will know it when it happens; nobody wants to obligate themselves with a mortgage (or tie up their money) and pay property taxes and maintenance and insurance. Especially if you want a property as a rental with nobody having a job or money. Bad times can be bad for renting. There are exceptions in many areas but this is a huge investment and one that must be studied carefully.


Another article worth a read and thought is :

Ship the Fools (Ship Of Fools, I think)
by Ty Andros

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2009/0424.html

These articles I recommend are an integral part of bartering and horse trading. In order to understand what we are doing, we must cut through the deceptions. The saying “Figures don’t lie but liars figure” should be part of our objective/cynical attitude whenever we are confronted by statistics.

Where is the profit if we were to invest in something that yielded a yearly return of 6% ? When the TRUE devaluation of the dollar is around 14% ? And that’s not factoring the income taxes on that paltry 6%.

The way I see it is that an investment should first be stable and therefore reliable for years to come. Do you see my setup here ? Yeah, I thought you would.

Truth is, there are hardly any investments out there that have both a high return AND security. Yeah, I know we all read about someone investing in stocks and doubling his money. But we hardly ever hear about someone losing their ass, do we ? The opposite of bragging rights from a profit is deafening silence from a loss. Just like in Las Vegas. Get the picture ?

So where am I leading you ? Down the rosy path ? In a way, yes. But I am also cautioning you about the thorns along the way.

My old saying is “people work for money, people work with money and money works for people”. About 99+ % work for money. Few really work with money and that is a good thing for us. Not much competition. However, I believe that is changing now. The economy is going from bad to worse and people are being forced to examine possibilities of cost saving. Don’t be surprised to see more folks at garage sales and estate sales this year. With that said, it will be mor4e important to get to the sales early. The best items always sell first. Being the lazy butt I am, I have only gotten to garage sales at opening one time. But I am changing that as of right now. Gotta be flexible.

I may not have mentioned it but there have been several times when I arrived just before the sale ended. The sellers sometimes had a half price on everything. And it is easier to negotiate better prices just before closing.

This year is what I have been expecting to be “The Great American Garage Sale”, so be ready and organized. There are several simple rules which will increase profitability and also preplanning which will make your bargain hunting experience a fun experience. I’ll try to make a post of all the things I can think up. You all are invited to join in any time.

Best wishes,

Agnut

Let’s see, we are in the latter half of May. Oh, that’s right ! Summer’s coming and that means warm weather. And being warm blooded creatures that almost all of us humans are, it follows that we will be getting out there and mingling and dealing.

Summer’s Coming !

So what to expect in the coming months.

The economy’s still running on hope. Hope that we will pop out of the worst economic downfall in memory. Well, unless you’re an octogenarian or more.

Before I get started on the rules of engagement regarding bartering and horse trading, here are a few articles to show the depth of the mess we are in :

Two articles by John Schettler.


"It's going to get worse before it gets worse."
 - Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.com.



11th Hour - Part I

http://www.writingshop.ws/html/11th_...ef=patrick.net

11th Hour - Part II


http://www.writingshop.ws/html/11th_hour-ii.html


=====================



This Economic Recovery will be Different This Time
by Hans Wagner


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2009/0515.html


************************************************** ******************
Future Shock and Investor Antidotes
by DeepCaster LLC, deepcaster.com | May 15, 2009

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2009/0515.html

HYPERSTAGFLATION MENTIONED !!!!!!

About damn time; I warned and wrote about this and first used the word hyperstagflation back in 2007. You see, in my mind, hyperstagflation is a time of extremes in which prices rise while wages are stagnant or fall. It may seem that I’m splitting hairs here but if you think about it, normal stagflation would be best described as a difficult time, a malaise.

However, hyper stagflation is characterized by seemingly unending rising unemployment, massive rising prices, shortages, political extremism, massive home price falls and foreclosures, economic and mental confusion, and wages stagnant and falling. Have I described our current situation ?

Why am I writing about this on a bartering and horse trading thread ? Simply because we must know the environment in which we seek to succeed.

Cause and effect. For example, you might want a nice piano. In good times you may go to the local music store and pick out your heart’s desire. But in a hyperstagflationary time, you would be well advised to survey the landscape and realize that there is a surplus of pianos coming on the market. This is due to home foreclosures and rising unemployment. Not to mention all the other uncertainties swirling around such as falling stock markets, job insecurities and pension uncertainties.

It becomes a mental balancing act wherein we must weigh our want for an item against the value we must pay for that item. So instead of buying a new piano for $4,000, we may find an almost new one for $400. Depends on where we are on the timeline. At the absolute bottom is the best time. Gauging this absolute bottom isn’t easy but a determining factor may be drawn from history. When there is a stock market crash and nobody wants a stock, it is often the best time to buy. Part of being a contrarian. Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are brave.

We must also stand back and view the overall picture. At the bottom, will we even want a piano ? Will our resources be better put to work in buying items for resale ? Of course ! I have used a piano as an example so that we may see how we must adapt as times change. Remember that Darwin said that the survival of a species does not go to the swiftest or strongest but to the ones most adaptable to change. It is these changes we must be watching for. and adapting to.

At the bottom, a piano is a dead end. It is an item that is not to be resold for profit but used for personal pleasure. Discretionary items such as a piano will take the worst beating.

As I have written, we are moving from form to function in our society. The form of a Corvette against the function of a 50 miles per gallon diesel pickup truck. Until recently, Corvettes didn’t even have a trunk ! And while I’m on the subject I’d like to share a thought with you. Right now I have a rebuilt VW diesel pickup truck. I’ve seen restored ones sell for as much as $12,000 on Ebay. Not lately however. Fuel prices have dropped dramatically since then and the public doesn’t see the fuel advantage right now. But this is an environment in which a smart buyer could pick up a deal for a fraction of the price when oil was $150 a barrel. The future bodes ill for oil. Two possibilities; rising prices again and reduced availability.

With that in mind, I’m thinking of selling my little VW diesel truck and buying a Dodge ¾ ton diesel truck with a 5 speed manual transmission and a bench seat to carry three people. A two wheel drive model since I don’t need it or the maintenance costs. I would also be on the lookout for a double axle trailer to haul cars or anything heavy.

Why sell a truck that gets 50 MPG and buy a truck that gets 20 MPG ? Ponce and I have been discussing a future in which there will be a need for anyone who can haul things from one area to the next. Also, the trailer could haul broken down cars. Have you seen the prices to haul a car 100 miles ? Additionally, there will be inventories for sale under distress prices. A truck with a trailer has many uses and is a lot more inexpensive and practical than a 20 foot box van. The diesel fuel can be stored better than gasoline. Also the potential for making biofuel. I have talked with a couple of customers who were running their diesels on used crankcase oil. One uses 50% oil and 50% diesel. The other says he uses 100% old oil. I find that hard to believe but may give it a try. If successful I can get all the used oil I want for free and store it away. My concern is more for future unavailability of fuel than price rises. By the way, I recently got a second diesel VW truck for something someone gave me many years ago and $100. So I can use it for local and small hauls. A plan behind the plan behind the plan, as Ponce is fond of saying.

Doesn’t matter whether you are buying a piano or a diesel truck and trailer; the overview is that you are seeking a better bargaining situation in the future you perceive as the most likely. We are all different and have different needs and abilities. Our past helps shape our perceptions. These can be hard to break; this involves our willingness to adapt.

Life is a wild roller coaster ride. Sometimes scenic and sometimes a white knuckle think-I’m-gonna-die episode. I believe we’re all about to take the plunge. Didn’t Obama recently state that things were unsustainable ? Gee, I wonder what he could have meant.

We are at the threshold of major change. We may not see desperate cheap garage sale prices right away. The general public’s perceptions must change first. I haven’t seen that in recent garage sales I’ve attended. But as this summer wears on I expect to see it unfold. If there is a market crash this fall, it may be wise to hold cash reserves in anticipation of better prices. I remember a photo of a man beside his fancy car with a for sale sign stating that he lost everything in the market and wanted $100 for his car. That was in the last depression.

By the way, I bought two sterling candle holders for $2 each at a garage sale. I knew they were weighted. When I scrapped them out I had just over 2 ounces of sterling silver. At about $12 per ounce for sterling, that’s a $20 profit. Maybe a bit less. Not great but an okay deal. Besides, it paid for my filthy hobby of collecting old vinyl records. The same day I got over 100 records for about $12. Some of those records were valued at $10, some at $20 and one at $40 according to my 13 year old Goldmine Record price guide. I don’t know what they would fetch in today’s market. I even have some records I got for 20 cents that catalog at $80 to $100. For now I’ll keep collecting. I’m always on the lookout for the rare records; some run into the thousands of dollars. In my case of vinyl records, the hunt is the game. The uncertainty is excruciating; hope it lasts forever.

Vinyl records are an interesting area to collect. Most all music these days is on CDs and computer downloaded. The quality of sound of vinyl records is far superior, especially the classical and jazz. Just my opinion. There’s nothing like the physical act of taking an LP record out of its jacket and putting it on the turntable. Brings back memories of the 50s and 60s. Priceless !

Hey, I’m only human and have my hobbies. I try to make them a financial plus but sometimes I can’t help myself. The record collecting may be rationalizing on my part but it is cheap and a lot of fun. Only time will tell if it turns out to be a gold mine.

Sometimes I ponder how we could experience a hyperinflationary blow off like Germany had in 1922-23. Sure, cash is king right now but with all the trillions borrowed, will we peons ever get any of it in our hands ? I just don’t see how that could happen. The trillions are being directed to the banks, stock and bond markets. Where does that ever trickle down to us ? Isn’t this totally different than what happened in 1922-23 Germany’s hyperinflation ? Can you imagine taking bundles of 100 dollar bills and throwing them in the fireplace to heat your house ? Rather, imagine dollars becoming worthless while at the same time we peons have little in hand. Baby, that’s hyperstagflation !

The 3 to 4 million jobs Obama says he wants to create ? Read the following article and near the end of the article you will see that they are all earmarked for illegals and foreigners.

Future Shock and Investor Antidotes
by DeepCaster

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2009/0515.html


Ponce says “No manufacturing, no recovery”. We can’t recover doing each other’s laundry. As time passes, the rest of the world wants less and less of what we still manufacture. And at the same time, we need more and more of what they manufacture. A foreign trade deficit leads to national impoverishment. A banana republic without the bananas.

Think of the things you can’t or won’t buy used, like socks and underwear. I have a 10 year supply stored away. Ponce has over 1,700 rolls of toilet paper By the way, he says that the Marathon brand at Costco is the best value. Adaptability to change goes hand in hand with learning of what others are doing and deciding if that makes sense to you.

I hope you who read this will find a quiet spot and deeply consider what you will direct your efforts to in the future. Because like compound interest, what you invest in yourself now will also reap compounding interest through time. It’s the only way I see to build for the future. It’s an economic war and a wise battle plan is crucial. I continue to write on this thread because it is life changing stuff.

I’m still writing the rules of engagement for garage sales and estate sales. Hope to post it soon.

Well, enough rattling on. Hope you excuse my train of thought derailing at times.

Best wishes,

Agnut

"If I had a hobby that didn't bring me some money I would soon find a new hobby."
- Orson Wells

Hey Agnut!

I just wanted to say thanks for your continued writings. I've been reading this thread for over a year and just recently registered here on GIM.

The information you provide is incredible and I have put it to good use on many occasions. I hope to share soon some of the horse tradign I've done.

Thanks again from the Silver State!

Hi and thanks Silver Stater. This bartering and horse trading runs through our lives like golden threads in a tapestry. Gads ! I’m getting all frilly and poetic. Could I be in the process of becoming a metro sexual ? Not hardly; I don’t even own a purse.

Even what follows is part of my way of thinking.

I’ve been considering raising catfish as part of my prep program. However this article shows when government mandates changes such as using corn ethanol in gasoline, unintended consequences follow.

As Price of Grain Rises, Catfish Farms Dry Up

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/18/bu...18catfish.html

Corn and soybean feed stocks have gone through the roof. These catfish farms aren’t going to return even if prices fall enormously. Once they are gone they are gone until some future entrepreneur see an opportunity as well as dependable feed prices. My point is that we are seeing businesses shut down all over the place and they most definitely WILL NOT reopen simply because they can make a profit. It not only takes a lot of capital but also must be in a stable environment in which they can thrive for an extended period of time.

You are probably wondering about how this relates to bartering and horse trading. Well, we are going through and into difficult times. Companies shutting down have to sell their equipment and inventory. I recommend your watching for these sales as they come up. In the past I have found such deals and done quite well. Sometimes one deal leads to another. Talk to people and ask questions. You won’t believe how this networking yields fruit.

This is the beginning of the summer garage and estate sales period. However, with the economy in the dumper I have noticed buyers with new cars and well dressed are attending more and more. Even those in better financial situations are getting the message and trying to save money. So the competition may be stronger. Time will tell. That is why is a wise idea to have all your ducks in a line before sallying forth in search of the best deals.

The following is a list of buyer points :

Rules of engagement for garage sales and estate sales.

1. Get the ads as early as you can. It’s only polite since you are the guest of honor. Nobody knows this but you but this is my attitude when garage and estate attending. I talk and joke with the seller and other buyers. If I didn’t see what I was looking for, I often told other buyers what I was looking for and they often had what I wanted or knew someone who did. See, networking.

2. Organize which sales you feel are most promising and hit them first.

3. Draw out a map of the sales you want to attend. And while traveling your route, watch for signs for other sales. Often the unadvertised sales will be less picked over and better than the ones on your map.

4. Get there early ! If a sale begins on a weekday, even better since most folks are working and can’t compete with you.

5. Take a notebook and pen. For kicking ass and taking names, of course !

6. Dress accordingly. Not like a bum; pity doesn’t pay off too well.

7. Proper transportation. My favorite is a VW diesel pickup truck; it gets about 50 MPG and is cheap to operate. Also doesn’t look like I have much money. Also it is quite maneuverable and I can haul lots of bigger items, especially with my trailer.

8. Take plenty of small bills. Sometimes I take as much as 100 singles and a lot of fives. Of course I have plenty of change but also I offer to take their 20s and give them change for their other customers. Sellers always appreciate this since most of them are new to this garage selling and have neglected to think of having change. That’s right, most sellers don’t know what they are doing. And that leaves things wide open for you, the beady eyed pro, to make the best deals.

9. Always ask “What else do you have for sale ?” I remember arriving at a garage sale to find that I had missed a great deal on a boat and trailer. Could have doubled my money in a flash. Not discouraged, I asked what else they had for sale. They took me behind a fence and showed me a single axle trailer. I got it for $300 and we have used it in a multitude of deals. People have wanted to buy it for double or more but I just have too much need myself. Sometimes you will see something and think about it and not buy it. But if you will take the seller’s phone number, you may change your mind later and be able to pick it up. Maybe at a better price too since they haven’t sold it. Your risk is that someone will see it and buy it before you get back to the seller.

10. Have a list of what you may be specifically looking for. Ask if they have it.

11. Take time to thoroughly think about what you are looking at. It may not be something you need or want but may be valuable to someone else.

12. When looking at a group of items like records or a collection, ask how much for them all.

13. Always have an eye for the most expensive items. I learned long ago (and this is very important) that a deal in which you buy something for $10 and sell for $20 is the same work as a deal you buy for $1,000 and sell for $2,000. Time is money; how much you want to make per hour is in your hands. I once went to a government auction and noticed that most of the buyers were driving new luxury cars. One buyer was specializing in huge quantities of ball bearings. He would buy pallet loads of new boxes of bearings and have them trucked away to his storage facility. I heard that he was making a killing. I have seen the prices of bearings go up in my business and understand this buyer’s wisdom.

He was a specialist. He knew the demand and resale price for the particular bearings he was buying. He had enough capital behind him to buy large lots at a time. Also he could outbid anyone who wanted to horn in on his little goldmine.

You may want to specialize too but there are different rules here. You need money, deep knowledge and potential buyers. Not for everyone but this can be quite lucrative. I know someone who is a gem cutter. He really knows his rocks. He went to a huge rock show and got an uncut rock for $3 and resold it for $600. The point is, knowledge is powerful. Good to keep it to yourself; opening your mouth invites in competitors. Bragging rights have no place where they can spoil your future dealings. And envy isn’t something you want to get started.

By the way, another specialist at that auction was into medical equipment. I saw several dental chairs and dental equipment go under the gavel. He refurbished it and sold it throughout central and south America. I heard he was making a killing.

Times change and something that works today may not in a couple of years. You have to always be aware of trends and the economy. Adaptability is integral, especially if you want to become a specialist.

An antique icebox I got for $60 a while back might be worth $600 now but in a year it may only fetch $100. Why ? Who wants a piece of furniture when they don’t have enough money for food. And that’s where I think we are heading.

14. Be a futurist. Years ago I wrote that we were moving from form to function. The form of a late model car melts in the heat of a bad economy. I have watched the cars on the roads and in driveways for many years and I still am amazed at the foolishness of the general populace. Does a $30K car get you somewhere any faster or reliably that one you bought for $2,000 ? Functionality, practicability are part of futurist thinking.

15. Know your areas. A neighborhood with $500K homes yields much better deals than a $100K neighborhood. Not always true but that has been my experience. When I look through the newspaper’s garage sales, I note the streets and get excited when I see one I recognize.

Funny but wealthy people usually put much lower prices on the things they want to sell. Maybe they are more interested in getting them out of their garage more that the money they receive. The items they have are better maintained, newer and more expensive when they were new. Top of the line stuff.

16. If you like what you see and want to offer to buy the whole lot, make darn sure that you can quickly get your investment back. And that the rest of the items are valuable to you or a future buyer. Sure, there may be some junk among the items but these may be something to put out for your own garage sale. You can’t believe what some people will buy that you thought was destined for the dump. Better that it goes to their dump and they pay you for the privilege to haul it away. You will need some lower end stuff to give buyers something to root through.

17. Make a list of friends and family who are looking for items. This falls in the realm of relationships and the sheer pleasure of helping those around you. It pays off in so many ways that I can’t even describe. Try it and this will make a believer out of you.

The other day I was at a garage sale and the lady was about to close down. I got a 26’ chest freezer for $150, what I was there for in the first place. But she had boxes of items she was going to throw away. One box had three delicate ceramic pieces. I took them home and wrapped them up (Dollar store paper and ribbons with a $0.50 card). They went to my mother this last mother’s day. She was thrilled. I explained to her where I had gotten them and that they were free. Now you can’t/shouldn’t do this with everybody but my mom is a barracuda when it comes to garage sales and she was happy to learn that I hadn’t spent any money for something so beautiful. Actually it was my mom who was instrumental in getting me started in bargain hunting when I was a teenager. I remember coming home from church one day and mom stopped the car to pick up a wicker chair beside the curb. It was destined for the trash truck. You can’t believe the nice things some people throw away.

And while I’m on a tear I want to mention something dear to my heart. I bought several lots of scrap sterling silver jewelry from Ebay. Actually, almost of it was wearable, not scrap. The photos told me of their condition and attractiveness. I paid melt prices for the lots. I have let friends and family look through the jewelry and pick out pieces they liked. Sounds like a giveaway but it isn’t. No, not at all. Bartering and horse trading is broader that you may expect. It is a way of looking at life and making it on your own terms. The benefits are in cash, other goods and especially providing ways of showing your care and concern for others.

“You have to leave the city of your comfort and go into the wilderness of your intuition. What you'll discover will be wonderful. What you'll discover is yourself.”
Alan Alda 1936-, American Actor

If you will go forth with the right attitude and the recommendations I have given, you will discover yourself at your best. I’m a firm believer in this.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. I have loads of items I could use for gifts. Some cost nothing and the rest were bargains. When a birthday comes around, I don’t have to go to the store. I already have a load of $0.50 cards and wrapping paper. And every Christmas is a joy since I don’t have to join the holiday crush. I buy presents all through the year and they are personally picked out. A tie for father’s day is an insult in my mind but something like a beautiful abalone shell for the right person is touching. I collect what I feel is remarkable and give it away.

A few quotes from my collection :

To know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have succeeded. --Ralph Waldo Emerson

Let no man imagine that he has no influence. Whoever he may be, and wherever he may be placed, the man who thinks becomes a light and a power. ~ Henry George

"Strange is our situation here on Earth. Each of us comes for a short visit, not knowing why, yet sometimes seeming to divine a purpose. From the standpoint of daily life, however, there is one thing we do know: that man is here for the sake of other men - above all for those upon whose smiles and well-being our own happiness depends." -Albert Einstein

“$100 placed at 7 percent interest compounded quarterly for 200 years will increase to more than $100,000,000 — by which time it will be worth nothing."
Robert Heinlein

"The trade of the petty usurer is hated with most reason: it makes a profit from currency itself, instead of making it from the process which currency was meant to serve. Their common characteristic is obviously their sordid avarice."
Aristotle

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." ~ Thomas Jefferson

"Money is the most important subject intellectual persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it is widely understood and its defects remedied very soon."
Robert H. Hemphill, credit manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Intelligence is like four-wheel drive. It only allows you to get stuck in more remote places.
Garrison Keillor

If a man empties his purse into his head, no man can take it away from him. An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.
Benjamin Franklin

As I stated earlier, I've taken a lot from your threads Agnut and have put much of that into practice with my life.

The first thing I want to say is KNOW WHAT YOU ARE BUYING. There have been times that I've thought I was making a great deal but turns out it wasn't because I wasn't knowledgable about the specific item. I once paid $60 for a stamp collection which was in a huge bound book - nearly every page completed. There was a coin and stamp show in town that weekend so I figured I could flip it quickly and make some money. The dealers there only offered me $20 for it. I'm in the process of piecing it out on Ebay to recover the money. The same thing has happened with other stuff but I'm much more knowledgable and have limited my range of what I will buy. Now, I only buy what I know.

The first big deal I made was at a government auction. I bought a large lot of stuff - brand new, never opened from their original package - that the Department of Defense had overstocked. I bought this lot for $600 and I'm still selling it off slowly. So far I've made over $12,000 on it. On the information form it stated the government had paid $33,000 for this lot originally - your tax dollars at work...

I live in Las Vegas where basically everything is on sale right now. There have been numerous construction companies that have gone out of business and their tools auctioned off. I've been going to these auctions for awhile but as they become more commonplace the number of bidders has decreased. I went to one such auction on Saturday where there were a total of maybe 12 bidders. I picked up two used hitachi framing nailers which retail for nearly $300 for $6.16 each. I arrived late and was only there the last 25 minutes but the deals were amazing. Huge lots of gears that normally sell for $100 each were being sold in boxes of 30 for $50. Some larger industrial specialty machines like metal punches were offered at $20 with no bidders. A lot of the stuff I didn't feel comfortable bidding on based on my lack of knowledge but I research it so I know for next time.

Many model homes from construction companies have had their contents auctioned off at firesale prices. My wife and I picked up brand new kitchen appliances like a double oven, gas range, and dishwasher for 20% of what they would cost new. And these have never been hooked up or turned on - they just served as decorations in the model home. My wife and I plan on building a new home soon back in Louisiana and knew we would have to get these items at some time.

Another auction I went to that same day had large glass display cases that jewelers use being sold for $20 each. There are many good deals to be had but if I have no use nor a place to store them I can't jump on it.

I've also picked up many deals that I only bought to resell immediately and earn extra cash.

Again, horse trading is a continual learning process and to those who take time can be a great investment.

Thanks again for all your work in spreading the word.

P.S. - I've met other horse traders here in town and you can learn SO much from these old guys. They have mastered the craft over years and I enjoy going in with them on deals I find if I don't have the cash to make it myself. They can also be a great resource if you are looking for something in particular and will usually give you a good deal on it.

Hi Silver Stater. Great post. I have to admit that I didn’t respond for so long so that your writing would be read well and often. Not that I’m really a lazy bastard and will use any scrap of an excuse to justify my shortcomings in posting more often. But this was not the case here; it just appears that way.

Your post offers some new possibilities I haven’t tried such as model home appliances and furniture..

And you are so right about the old timer horse traders. Don’t be shy about taking phone numbers form them for future deals as well as taking numbers from sellers. And take notes about anything you may want to possibly buy later. It’s called networking and will give you a wider field of opportunities from which to pick. Besides, these type of delayed deals have at least two advantages. The price may be bargained lower in many instances as the deal is allowed to ripen. And there will be no onlookers to possibly sour the deal. It is always best to deal one on one if possible.

You brought up a most important point. KNOW WHAT YOU ARE BUYING. Funny but this happened to me just yesterday. My son and I were coming home from a family visit and saw a sign for a garage sale along the roadside. I turned to my son and raised an eyebrow in query. Okay boss ? You see, my son isn’t as enthusiastic as I am where ferreting out deals is concerned.

We drove in this long driveway that ended with too many cars in too few spaces. It was about 1:00 and the sale ended at 2:00 (told you I was a lazy bastard). The seller told us that most everything was gone; he sounded quite happy with whatever had sold in the past several hours.

Undaunted (I’m not easily daunted), I proceeded to look through the scraps and leavings of the previous horde who had obviously descended upon this garage sale like army ants on a carcass. The tables were mostly empty with vast spaces announcing to me “Hi lazy, there were some great items sitting here just a few hours/minutes ago. HaHaHa”

Not being easily hurt or insulted, especially by inanimate objects, I proceeded to closely peruse the goods. There were several old electric motors under the tables. Pass, thank you very much. Didn’t need a boat anchor.

There was a pile of heavy electric cables. Not much there at first thought but one cable did catch my eye. It was over an inch thick and had 4 or 5 heavy copper wiring leads inside. About 20 foot long and very heavy like an Anaconda. I asked how much and he said 50 cents. I dug in my pocket but only had 31 cents. He saw the change and said it would be enough (even took my damn penny before I had a chance to see if it was an early copper or a late zinc slug). He said that the scrap people were paying $1.40 for clean copper. Why he didn’t listen to himself I’ll never know. Some things are best left unsaid, especially talking yourself out of a good deal. I have a higher use in mind for this cable; a 220V extension for my Lincoln welder or a three phase lathe. Have you priced heavy electric cable by the foot ?

Okay, okay, I’m probably boring you to tears with my damn wiring story. But here it gets interesting. I was scanning the tables and a shiny caught my eye. It was a silver dish. I scooped it up and looked for the sterling markings on the bottom. No luck; it was plated. But next to it was a candle holder. It was made by Towle and was weighted. Be still my beating heart. I also picked up a dish and turned it over. No markings on the bottom. Sigh ! But wait ! What is this ? On the curved underside I could read the manufacturer Alvin and the word sterling !

So why were these two sterling pieces still sitting here long after the horde had descended ? Well, the candle holder was filled and the plate’s sterling marking was in an unusual location. There may have been as many as 50 people who had previously looked at them and not looked as closely as I had.

I took the two sterling pieces to the seller and asked how much. He said a dollar each. I whipped out the two tortured Washingtons and paid him.

So now I’m home and calculating the value of the scrap sterling. After the filled candle holder was smashed, sliced and diced, it went across the scale at 29.4 grams. Not quite an ounce but still worth about $10.00. A ten bagger; not too shabby.

Next I weighed the sterling dish and to my amazement it was 72.5 grams ! That’s 2.33 ounces of sterling and even at about ten bucks per ounce melt price, that would pay $23.30. A twenty three bagger. Wow !

Now if a bonehead like me can continually fall into a pile of junk/crap and come up smelling like a rose, you can too. I was more excited about the filled candleholder than the dish. After all, it was big and very heavy. See, an important lesson here, my eyes were deceiving me.

Last week I went to another garage sale and there were hundreds of items. Lots of glassware and dump renegades. Crap, in other words. I asked if they had any records and they directed me to a motley stack of old 78s. Unexcited, I slogged through them to find a few 45s. I don’t avidly collect these single play records but along the way I’ve accumulated a couple of hundred so far. I picked out a Wanda Jackson record (Capital #4681). My price catalog says it is worth about $7.50 to $10.00. The other record was more interesting; the song Jambalaya by “Little Brenda Lee” (9 years old). Turns out, this 45 was the first record Brenda Lee issued and catalogued at $30. Not too bad for a dime for each record.

I better stop here before you get all frothing at the mouth and planning how to tie up great uncle Hiram while you rape and pillage his cobwebbed record collection in the attic. Lust and greed are closely related, more than I care to admit.

The point is, just because a catalog says that a particular item ( record, antique, pottery, etc.) is worth a price, it doesn’t mean that you can just advertise and get what you expect. Maybe it’s best to think of these given prices as relative to other similar item’s values. If someone were to want to pay me $10 for the Little Brenda Lee record, I would jump all over them, kissing them enthusiastically. Might even get carried away (literally. No, figuratively). I might act the fool but only in my head. It isn’t wise to display raw emotions when dealing. But it sure is funny to think about afterwards.

Ya gotta know when to hold ‘em, when to fold ‘em, when to walk away, when to run. Good song and sound advice when dealing.

Remember I wrote that I was saving my money and not buying DVDs until the price dropped to $1 each ? Well, it happened last week. I was at a moving garage sale. There wasn’t anything there that interested me. But guess what ? I asked the question that opened the floodgates. I said “Do you have any DVDs ? The guy turned to his wife and she said “We’re moving. Why not ?” My pulse and blood pressure was rising; I could feel it. Much akin to how a shark’s eyes roll back in its head as it bites into its prey.

The guy brought out over 400 DVDs in these huge cardboard boxes. A veritable gluttonous feast for the videophile aka me ! I instantly sized up the situation and could see other sharks circling. How to keep them off the best pickings. I quickly eyed the boxes’ contents and slid the best boxes over in front of me and began going through them. It was a feeding frenzy with two others going through boxes nearby. Luckily I didn’t have to bitch slap anybody but it was getting a bit emotional there. Some crusty old geezer (like I’m not one myself) descended on the DVD box sets and devoured many before I could muscle in. I did pick up the first season of the Sopranos, The Wire and MAD TV for $5 each. Total price was $93 but the seller gave me a discount to $85. Didn’t even have to ask him.

Now this has happened to me several times where I ask what else the seller may have for sale and a feeding frenzy follows with these interlopers trying to cut me away from the hoard, the very items I was responsible for having the seller drag out in the first place. Ain’t that a pisser ?

Well, I have to tell you that I’m getting better at anticipating these hot deal parasites. There are ways to deal with them and you better be prepared to repel all boarders. Because with the powerful “What else do you have for sale ?” utterance, you will have opened the floodgates for all of the others around you to rush in too.

First, size up the situation. Are there many others around ? What type of buyers are they ? And don’t be deceived by some of these grossly overweight hoofers. They can use their weight like a rhinoceros in muscling you aside.

Second, be prepared to move instantly as the new items come out of the woodwork.

Third, you may ask that you get first call on the new items. That makes others stand around, pawing the ground and silently hating your being in first place. Ain’t human nature a beautiful thing ? We think we‘re above the animals but I think that in the long ago past, the animal world got together and decided to kick us out. So maybe we really descended from the apes.

Fourth, establish prices with the seller as you go through the items. Put them in a pile and write down their prices so that there is no confusion when their total is tallied.

Fifth, haul the items away if at all possible. If you can’t, get a receipt and get back with the proper vehicle as soon as possible. I’ve even paid for and taken a part of the item with me before I could take the whole item away. That way, the large item has been rendered unsalable to another who may outbid your purchase while you are away getting the proper vehicle to haul it off. It is ugly and does occasionally happen so be aware that even if you have paid for an item and not yet picked it up, there may be others bidding on YOUR item or seller‘s remorse wherein he wants to give you your money back. Ponce‘s saying “If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it” really applies here.

We are just beginning the summer garage sale and estate sale fest. What little I’ve seen so far makes me want to get out there every weekend. Just remember that what you buy you also need to sell. Or at least add to your preps/needed items. Emotions have no place in deal making. Well, it’s okay to get all excited after the deal is made and you have things in your hot little hands.

Gotta go, always more to do than time available. And this being so active is really good for happiness and mental growth.

Best wishes,

agnut

P.S. I suspect that we don’t have much time until something significant happens. Actually, any time forward. I’m hoping that we have at least 3 months; I need that time to get a Dodge diesel truck and trailer and to put away some cash for the slow times ahead.

Our dollar’s reserve currency status is becoming more and more in question. The bond/treasuries could be the match that sets the whole thing ablaze. Here’s a great article from Dr. Fekete about this. He sounds more pissed off lately. Like most of us. Welcome to the club Doc !:

Fiat Money In Death Throes

http://www.professorfekete.com/default.asp

And another related about California’s potential to bring the house of cards down. Read it carefully; it isn’t to be taken lightly :

****California Leads Nation To Bond Default Abyss****

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/0...d-default.html

This is from this website : It may be a good idea to scan the articles.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/

Here’s a great thread by Cory, a veteran member at Timebomb2000. Probably not shocking news to us here at GIM but yet another confirmation of why we are prepping and preemptively rearranging our lives (as in Darwin’s beliefs, survival goes to those most adaptable to change) before we are forced to.

This is NOT the 2nd running of the Great Depression.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=335852

Lots of ground level experiences.

What’s this got to do with bartering and horse trading ? In my opinion, we are transitioning from form to function in rather rapid succession. From driving a Corvette garnering all the oohs and ahhs from bystanders to a society where these rather useless forms of transportation will become a joke. There, I said it. Even though I have been a lifelong afflictianado of performance cars. I’ve owned hundreds of cars including Porsche, Jaguar, Austin Healey, Ferrari, Corvette, Alfa Romeo, Mercedes, Packard and other marquees. Yep, I was a real car junkie. Always looking for the next “fix”. But the world has changed drastically and we MUST think in terms of what will be most useful in the future we perceive.

I’ve mentioned my two VW pickup trucks and their advantages. Along the way I have also learned their care and feeding; especially the engines. They seem pretty durable and should provide thousands of hours of power as opposed to the cheap air cooled diesel generator setups if I were to hook up a generator head to a 1600CC VW diesel engine.

The only problem is that they are a bit too big and therefore too fuel hungry; about a gallon per hour. Ponce has advised me to get a smaller diesel generator which uses about ¼ to ½ gallon per hour and adjust my whole electric needs to fit that scenario instead of trying to continue with heavy electric consumption. Like a laptop computer and small 12 volt lights. Saturday I bought two color TVs for a total of $2.50. Small screens and low power needs. Maybe they’ll be practical with a low budget battery and inverter system. Not sure yet but I’m learning and adapting as I go.

I have a second purpose in mind in wanting to use 50% or even 100% used oil. I need a diesel generator and one that could run with cheap or free fuel could provide all the electricity for our household. I would use a VW diesel engine connected to a 12K generator which should charge the batteries while at the same time it would provide the heavy amp loads I need at times. Like the well for refilling the water storage tank. Geez, I’m starting to sound like Noah’s Ark. Good ! Because we should think of becoming as independent from outside sources as possible.

This bartering and horse trading thread was started about 18 months ago with the theme of more effectively getting value for our hard earned dollars. Bang for the buck. Through that same time, unfolding developments have morphed us toward survivalist mode and so much of my thinking lately has weighed heavily in this direction. What we do now will not only be good and wise for the present but also set us up for what I see as a dramatic change in how we will proceed into the future. Ponce’s experience with Cuba’s economic, political and social devolvement has been a stark slap in my face, a wake up call. If you only knew the sad third world living situation there, you would be shocked.

I firmly believe it’s coming here in the U.S. but will be different in some ways. Follow the money. The banks have been “reliquified” with money created out of thin air but it hasn’t gotten to the man on the street. And probably won’t either. This is fascism and cronyism writ large.

The scenarios of deflation, inflation and hyperinflation have been hotly argued on the internet for some time. But a couple of years ago I wrote that I expected what I called “hyperstagflation”. My feelings haven’t changed either. So let’s look at the possibilities and YOU tell me what you think will unfold.

Deflation is a decrease in the money supply. Is that happening ? With the trillions created in the last year ? It may seem so since the money isn’t getting to us commoners. But it is still increasing at an unprecedented clip and will be coming home to roost as the trillions that have been held in foreign countries flood back to their birthplace (the cradle of Rosemary‘s Baby sounds about right).

Inflation is an increase in the money supply. Hoo boy, we are sure doing that ! Prices are going up all over the spectrum even though the money isn’t getting to us pee-ons.

But when inflation had risen in the past, wages had also risen to kind of keep up. Are we seeing that now ? Not really. In fact, rising unemployment and underemployment have gone through the roof. Hard to give raises when the company is laying off like there is no tomorrow That’s because there IS no tomorrow. Al least not like we what we have known through the past.

I believe this rising unemployment should be factored in with wage raises and decreases. It makes the picture complete. And somewhat explains why companies are not giving raises like we have seen in the past.

And while I’m on my soapbox, these unemployment figures from the government say one thing and the shadowstats website says another, quite larger number. But I wonder if the government workers and those working under government contracts and those directly dependent on government largess are also part of the shadowstats unemployment figures. Because government is net hiring while the private sector is laying off in a big way.

My point is, I’d like to see the private unemployment figures excluding these government employees and others. If this were done, we may be shocked at what the true unemployment figure is for us who are actually paying the taxes and therefore for all this government employment.

Hyperinflation like Germany had in 1922-3 and Zimbabwe recently had the notable characteristic that they were overprinted until their use as firewood material and toilet paper exceeded their purchasing power. Their inflation raged but importantly to note is that their wages also went up at the same time. Do you think that can happen while our largest denomination dollar bill is a measly $100 ? Both Germany and Zimbabwe printed single notes denominated in the millions. So if you believe we in the U.S will begin to issue single notes denominated in the millions, you will experience the same scenario. I just don’t see how this will happen with the Fed and Treasury in place. Can you imagine them printing piles of billion$ notes ?

So what would a hyperstagflation scenario feel like ? Well, wages going nowhere and continuing wage cutbacks while unemployment/under unemployment continued. At the same time, prices rising. Especially in the things we use such as food and fuels. Remember that we are talking about the U.S. and not the rest of the world. We are the ones with the crippled monetary system. Although we are the reserve currency for the world, we are rapidly losing that status. The BRIC meeting was in session recently and although we asked to attend, we have been refused. Shouldn’t THAT be a huge dot in our minds ? A financial writer described this meeting as the most significant event so far in the 21st century !

In a nutshell, hyperstagflation drives the middle class into the poverty class.

The reason for this writing is to make you aware of the dollar’s precarious future. And bartering and horse trading takes on a different pathway for our thinking. Why save in dollars when they are being devalued into oblivion ? Time has to be part of our balancing act of maintaining purchasing power. We are forced to use dollars by government edict. Unconstitutional, I know. But no reason to go off into a rant. We must study the facts and wisely act in our best interest, no matter how maddening and unjust it may seem. In other words, don’t get mad; get even.

If we have a true inflation rate of 14% as the Shadowstats website says, doesn’t that mean that we must make about a 20% yearly profit on our money in order to pay the income taxes so that we net this 14% ? And this would mean that we are merely maintaining purchasing power through time. It’s like Alice In Wonderland having to run faster and faster just to stand still. And where is the compensation for risking our investment money ? There should be some additional income here. Otherwise, why take the risk of investing our hard earned savings.

I find it insanely incredible that so many investors think that they made a profit in the stock market or bonds when they actually lost purchasing power through the years.

It is with this that I feel that pondering the future and what will be needed will set us up with opportunities. But we must act now.

I believe that gold and silver are great stores of wealth. But a certain amount of dollars is necessary for short term usage. So a need to balance ourselves there. But there is a worldwide drought that is estimated to hugely decrease wheat, soybean and other food commodities.

We may well see the double whammy of devaluing dollars while the whole world is desperately bidding for the scarce drought ridden food commodities.

Additionally, as I wrote before, we in the U.S. spend about 14% of our income on food. What happens when food prices double while our discretionary money, our cushion, had literally vaporized about two years ago ? Where is the additional 14% to come from ? The harsh reality is that very hard decisions will have to be made by those who had remained oblivious until that point in time.

The bright point is that you are aware of what is coming and can begin to stock even more long term food storage that you presently have. I’m doing it as much as I can.

If silver and gold were to double in price in the next year but food were to also double, which would you rather have in your possession ?

And think about this. To acquire more silver and gold you would have to pay a premium over the spot price when buying and possible lose some on the selling end. Not to mention the two times you must go to the coin dealer to buy and sell. But right now you can buy food preps with no premiums paid as well as there is no sales taxes to pay. Also you can bargain hunt for the best deals. In my way of thinking, it’s a win-win situation.

I want to tell you about an interesting thing that you should be aware of if you choose to collect a specialty item such as vinyl records. There is a long timeline such as a graph with the price rising and falling through the years. If you can correctly perceive a future increased demand for something and collect it now, you will reap the harvest. However, this isn’t easy and the future will pass judgment on your earlier decision. That is why my collecting vinyl records makes sense to me. It fits all the parameters of being a cheap hobby, fun to do, lots of listening enjoyment. Also, vinyl records have the potential to return multiples of profit if chosen carefully and knowledgeably. In the last 6 months or so I’ve noticed that there have been almost no records being offered. Either people aren’t selling them or they don’t have them any more. Like so many other collectables, vinyl records may dry up in your ability to easily find them. They are not making vinyl records anything like they used to and therefore the ones that exist are probably all that there will be in the future. The records from the 50s, 60s and early 70s will be most appreciated by those who grew up in this era. So say you have a 1959 record, a potential buyer would have had to have been born 10 (maybe 13 or so) or more years before and would be about 60 to 63 at present. Me ? I’m 62. What a coincidence.

But be mindful that in 10 years I will be 72 and possibly not interested in such music by then. You know, geezerhood with hearing loss and delirium becoming looming sidekicks. Not to mention that I may have kicked the bucket by then and it is only logical that I would make a lousy customer.

Jazz music seems to have a strong following with some early artists’ recordings commanding a premium. Also the jazz records are, in my opinion, not as prone to become less desirable through the years. At a garage sale last Saturday I picked up 26 albums for $20 in total. There were several Dave Brubeck jazz albums along with some early 60s rock and roll albums. The catalog values averaged about $20 each. I don’t know what they would sell for in today’s economy but am not too concerned since the price to potential value spread is so wide. Even though it is my hobby (and a pretty cheap one at that), it makes sense to wisely buy as often as possible. I do get a lot of pleasure from them and a possible profit when I may decide to sell someday. I have a hard time imagining they would become worthless in the distant future. I know most older 78s are essentially worthless but their listening quality does not begin to compare with the 33 1/3 LP records. However, there are collectors for these old 78s; I have boxes of them and am looking for these collectors. Some are as old as 1902 and only recorded on one side. I’ll let you know if I am successful. I have only about 5 cents each in them and could use them for skeet shooting.

If you love classical music, the world is your oyster. First, there seem to be a relatively large amount available. Second, the records themselves have usually only been played once or very little. And usually on high quality turntables. Pristine condition. Classical buffs are usually older and therefore not handling the records in a cloud of drug induced euphoria. No dragging the needle across the vinyl and no playing Frisbee with the goods. Third, they are cheap. I mean real cheap. I have many that are by the best recording studios and by the best musicians, conductors and orchestras in the world. Cost ? As little as a nickel and a couple I’ve paid as much as a buck.

Anyway, enough about my vinyl fetish. How about you ? What do you have a weakness for ?

I have suggested collecting sterling silver pieces but so far no one has taken me up on this. Both beautiful to look at and use with the kicker that as silver goes up, sterling pieces also go up. When I began collecting sterling before 2000, I was picking up pieces as cheap as about $3 per troy ounce. Now it is about $10 per troy ounce on Ebay. Remember that sterling isn’t silver bullion and may not be subject to confiscation. Maybe seeming inconsequential now but who knows with all the crazy things happening these days.

(rant follows)

I believe this rising unemployment should be factored in with wage raises and decreases along with TRUE inflation. It makes the picture more complete. And somewhat explains why companies are not giving raises like we have seen in the past.

And while I’m on my soapbox, these unemployment figures from the government say one thing and the shadowstats website says another, quite larger number. But I wonder if the government workers and those working under government contracts and those directly dependent on government largess are also part of the shadowstats unemployment figures. Because government is net hiring while the private sector is laying off in a big way.

My point is, I’d like to see the private unemployment figures excluding these government employees and others. If this were done, we may be shocked at what the true unemployment figure is for us who are actually paying the taxes and therefore for all this government employment which is paid from OUR taxes. It would also explain why the government is borrowing all these trillions to keep going. Will the last nongovernmental employee please turn out the lights when you leave ?

I mean, the shadowstats figures are disastrous enough. But if I am right in my suspicions, the unemployment percentage of us working stiffs not involved in government labor is already much worse than in the great Depression.

Happy Days Are Here Again ? I think not.

(rant off but maybe I should post a thread about this in the GIM general section. It would be “nice“ to know.)

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. Bartering and horse trading can easily save us thousands of dollars each year. And that’s only on the personal buying end. The buying and selling for profit end can reap many additional thousands of dollars per year.

If you are thinking of getting a part time job, here it is ! Hire yourself to wisely manage your own money. And set up a business in your mind; one that makes a profit every time money and goods change hands. I do this. Ponce does this too and often far better than what I do.

We’re on our own. We must take responsibility for where we are in life and not blame others for our own shortcomings. All highly successful people have overcome this attitude of the blame game. Life is a business. The payoff is security and happiness. You don’t have to be rich to be happy.

“We own nothing in this world but only have use of it for a time, for we are mortal.”

Thanks for the update agnut.

I just caught up with this thread a few days ago. You see, I've been super busy with moving to the country! 160 acres with house and buildings, for the price that the land itself would sell for. House and buildings are in great shape too. The nice thing is that out here it is so cheap, not a lot higher priced than the house in town was. 35 acres in crops, remainder rented for cattle grazing, somebody might pay a good sum to hunt deer in archery season, and need to rent a bit of that shed space to a farmer to store machinery in; all things that help pay the bills.

Just today I bought an old pop up camper, or rather what was left of it. It got totaled in a windstorm. I need a little flatbed trailer, and after throwing off the debris, there it was. Pretty good deal for only $50. If I put some sides on it and cleaned it up a bit more could get $300 or more, but not selling for now.

Hi handyman. Your 160 acre spread sounds like a slice of heaven. And you have already figured what benefits you can get from it. Good deal.

A single axle trailer has a multitude of uses. Mine is a 5 X 8 and I wouldn’t sell it for three times what I paid. Good luck getting yours fitted out.

The reason I go into economic details so much is to understand the future lay of the land and how to navigate through it.


Here’s an interesting article about hyperinflation and a book recommendation for defending ourselves in such an environment :

Surviving Hyperinflation: An Update
by Eric Englund

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0629.html

As I have written in the past, I see the future differently; I see prices rising for the things we need while wages languish. This is what I’m calling hyperstagflation, a quite different animal than the garden variety hyperinflation. Can you see the great difference ?

If hyper stagflation had a purpose, it would be to rapidly decimate asset and savings values and therefore propel the middle class downward into poverty level status. We’re seeing this happening now but I feel that it is only beginning. In the coming months I expect food prices to rise greatly as well as gas prices to rise more. (There is an article called “Peak oil=Peak Food” by Bob Moriarty http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mo...arty063009.htm
You might want to read it)

As the Englund’s Hyperinflation article states “…Brazilian employees who were not given raises in the first three months of 1988 watched their buying power plummet 64 percent. Even worse was the spring of 1985, when Bolivians saw their real income drop 90 percent in only three months."

Although we in the U.S. are not seeing this drastic a loss of purchasing power, we are still being nibbled away. What we are experiencing is a slower loss of purchasing power in a longer time span which still results in the same desperate situation as the Brazilian example above. It just takes a longer time to reach bottom. If you don’t believe me, think down the road a few years with a continuation of what has being going on and imagine your income unchanged while your purchasing power fell by 64% as the Brazilians experienced. Or your real income dropping by 90%. And at the same time span, prices rising continually for the things you must have to continue to exist. As the article says “Time eats money”.

We barterers and horse traders better understand this process AND adapt our thinking accordingly. Being able to correctly anticipate future economic scenarios should cause us to preposition ourselves to take advantage in the future.

If I believed hyper stagflation were bearing down upon us, I would stock up on long term food preps, store fuel as much as possible, buy imported items I need on a continual basis, and have what I could afford in precious metals. Now, holding large quantities of fiat currency is a tough decision. What is too much in view of true inflation with a possible collapse of the currency/”bank holiday” ? I really don’t know. We need cash for ongoing expenses while at the same time we need to hold reserves for opportunities. Greenspan said long ago that in the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect wealth. Well, I have to disagree. There are ways for a precious few who understand and preposition themselves accordingly. And I believe these precious few are here on the GIM website and other websites that tell it like it is.

It has been said many times that only 1 in 1,000 have prepped for the future. I think it is much, much less for those who would be considered FULLY prepared. Ponce’s quote “To be ready is not” means that there is always something more a prepper can do; the job is never finished. Wasn’t it Robert Burns who said “The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft aglee (oft go astray)” ?

The overview is that we can only do what we can to the best of our ability and situation.
The more you prep, the better your odds. No matter how much food you have stored away, you will run out in time. Imagine having prepped in 1958 in Cuba before Castro took over. Even if you had foods for 50 years (and not had it confiscated. “For the children“, you know), you would have run out by now. Growing your own food is the best answer I can think of.

I firmly believe that the best prep is to have a skill to offer others that they need. Could be auto repair, shoe repair, gardening skills, and a variety of bare necessities in keeping alive. It doesn’t matter if you are bartering and horse trading in a good economy or a depression. The game is pretty much the same but the amounts change. The underlying fact is that as long as people are alive, they will need things. These things change but there is ALWAYS a price/value difference to be had. It is up to us barters and horse traders to calculate and negotiate. In fact, this will become more important in the midst of a depression. Lots more bartering and trading if there isn’t any money around as the intermediary.

On CNBC just now, I saw that home prices are DOWN 18% in April. The talking heads tried to put a positive spin on it and Larry Kudlow over shouted a real estate analyst who disagreed with him. She also had the disturbing facts on future increasing foreclosed properties and couldn’t tell the public. Pathetic.

As for buying real estate, my quote is “in the future, in some places and at some times, real estate will be worth less than zero”. So I won’t be trying to catch a falling knife. A $400,000 property now worth only $328,000 ? I guess the $72,000 loss went to money heaven. HaHa

Pride of ownership becomes burden of ownership, particularly for the tract homes without acreage to grow food on or rent out. It is about 1/3 the cost to rent as opposed to buying a house. Things won’t turn around until it becomes advantageous to own rather than rent. And I believe that we have a long, long way to go down too !

Gotta go.

Best wishes,

Agnut

P.S. The only "green shoots" I can see are the ones growing in the parking lots of the shopping centers, car dealerships and driveways of the foreclosed homes. Change ? Nobody said it would be a change for the better. Ugh !

besides food, water and protection
what will be important/valuable in the future, after TSHTF ?

trade now and/or buy while it's cheap

__________________

Good to hear from you Canadian-guerilla.

Your question, “Besides food, water and protection, what will be important/valuable in the future, after TSHTF ?” is a toughie where bartering and horse trading is concerned. We all know, or should know, what we will need after TSHTF. But what we should have bought beforehand to trade with later is so subject to what we envision people will need when they have lost most/all of their illusionary world.

What could we store away that would be in high demand ? In the short term, not much. And hard to envision with so many variables. Perhaps it would be more productive to first think of what kind of soup we may be in.

I have been writing about our future being one of hyper stagflation rather than simple deflation or hyperinflation. Rising unemployment with no pay raises (and less hours worked and pay cuts) while prices for goods we need continue to rise (maybe go through the roof). Lots of luxury goods being sold for a pittance relative to a falling purchasing power of the fiat dollar.

What may we see that would be characteristic of this hyper stagflation ? Well, I’m already seeing it when I go to garage and estate sales. Lots of items that nobody wants and the ones that are a screaming bargain sitting there for hours with no takers.

Yesterday I got 5 candles for a buck total, one was a huge one with three wicks and four were in nice glasses. Also got a meat slicer for $2. Two nice umbrellas for $1 each. These are for our cars when we may be caught in an unexpected downpour. Got a Homedic back massager for $2 which costs about $40 new.

I already have these items and am buying backups for the future. Something you might want to do yourself. Extra coffee machines, wheat grinders, water purifiers, clothing, socks, underwear, toilet paper, towels and a whole variety of things which may be either too expensive or unavailable in a future of hyper stagflation. Ponce has multiples of several appliances. I think this is wise for the long haul; it may well be many years when/if we ever recover.

Except socks and underwear, these items may often be found at garage and estate sales.

Mephistopheles’ thread “Why I Expect Serious Stagflation”, has some interesting points.

t=383529

I particularly liked RiverRat’s post. In it he quoted :

“The Austrian school of economics put the US unemployment rate at closer to 45%,but FDR told the people what they wanted to hear, not what the limited economic data was pointing to.”

This is a very, very important point. While we are being told by our government that unemployment is at 9.5%, shadowstats is quoting 20.6% unemployment !

But I believe that it is actually a lot wilder and woolier than that !

It has been written that about 60% of employment is government or government connected. That leaves 40% for workers whose work has no connection to government labor (if you can call it that). This 40% is the group that actually pays the taxes that the whole government is supposed to run on. I don’t count the other 60% of government workers since their income is derived from the taxes collected from the REAL private sector of workers. Even though the government workers pay taxes, remember where their tax payments come from. Right !

And if we were to calculate the unemployment among this 40%, my guess is that it would be somewhere between 40 and 50 percent unemployed ! I wish shadowstats would report this segment of the unemployment population.

This is why when there is a job offer for two workers, 3,000 people apply ! A friend just told me of this happening where he lives in southern California. A simple job working in parks and recreation. There were two PHDs applying and many others with degrees. Veterans usually get first priority in this type of govt job.

So where did the other 2,998 go ? To another job offering with the horrible competitive applicant numbers? Or maybe some simply gave up.

Recently I was told that about 50% of white urban males are unemployed. This seems to correlate with what I have said above.

What does all this dreadful news have to do with bartering and horse trading ? Simple. We must be fully aware of the actual, non propagandized, financial landscape before we travel through it. Since I began this thread in January 2008, the whole playing field has morphed from one of opportunities in buying items for less and selling for more deal making into one of personally positioning one’s life for a potential collapse of the dollar and all it implies.

Therefore I will be focusing more on finding things I can use and need backups for. Always on the lookout for sterling silver though. Some things never change. And cheap LP records. Gotta get my vinyl fix; I’m hooked.

Lately it seems that sellers are trying to get rid of a lot of junk with almost no takers. I feel that it is not yet time for the good stuff to be offered. And when that does happen, money may be extremely scarce. See, the playing field is ever changing. Especially lately.

The next few months should be revealing if some of the financial writers are correct. My family is getting things in order for hunkering down within the next 90 to 120 days. Just a precaution.

If you are a smoker too (nasty habit, I admit), you might want to check out the tobacco by the pound, a box of filter papers and a cigarette machine. My local pusher has pipe tobacco for $34.99 a pound (while regular cigarette tobacco is $48.99) and 250 paper filter tubes for $3.99 per box. This is a heckuva lot cheaper than the $6 or more for a pack of Marlboros. And the tobacco doesn’t have all the additives that I understand are in commercial cigarettes. Better for you ? No, less bad for you.

Best wishes,

agnut

P.S. Maybe Obama read the teleprompter right but the crucial meaning was lost due to alliteration. It was supposed to be “green chutes” instead. Ever play “Chutes and Ladders” ? Right. The ladders elevated you up to the next level. And the chutes dropped you into the crapper !

Nice info there agnut, BTW what happens when these 20.6% run out of benifits?

A) they are no longer "unemployed" (counted).

B) Since the UE rate is improving we don't need to extend the benifits.

C) ???

More green chutes...

Attached Images

 

__________________



The president of a socialist nation (America)..
has to give a convincing speech saying essentially..
“We are not going to do.. what we are doing”

"No exports, No recovery"... Ponce

A thread started by Sapiens :

Supply shortage fueling used car prices

t=392220

Thanks Sapiens, good thread topic. Behind housing, transportation is our second largest expense.

I’ve been in the auto repair and sales industry for over 35 years. Got into it from being in love with cars.

I feel that we are in a transition period right now with new car sales falling off the cliff. The auto parts stores are doing a brisk business with people fixing up the used cars they currently have. I have heard that the auto repair shops are doing better. And I bet the wrecking yards are also picking up business. This all points to a future of scarcity of good used cars as well as used parts in wrecking yards as long as the wrecks coming in are exceeded by the demand for their body and mechanical parts. The Pull Your Own Parts wrecking yards have customers, teams of regulars who swoop on particular models and strip them like Piranha going at a pig carcass.

There could be low oil prices for a while but it may be wise to look to the future. I expect higher fuel prices happening at the same time of tighter money and/or devaluation of the dollar. So even if the fuel prices don’t rise too much, customers may be paying with more scarce and therefore more dear dollars. I have been focusing on high miles per gallon autos. You have patiently read my yammering on about high MPG cars. Well, there will come a time when a 50 to 60 MPG small car will become the ideal local marketing vehicle. My VW diesel pickup has 127 miles since the last fillup and the gauge reads ¾ full. Probably getting between 40 and 45 MPG with only shopping trips and garage sailing. No freeway driving at all. I hope to get 55 to 60 MPG on the freeway.

Another vehicle that interests me is the Chevy Sprint or Geo Metro. They are gasoline powered. They get about 50 MPG. I know someone who modified his Geo Metro and reported just over 100 MPG ! That’s probably stretching it to the limit with leaning out the carburetor. Water injection should help with the heat buildup but personally I would tend to lean out the fuel less to prevent burning the valves and pistons. Using Brown’s gas in this car could also help the MPG rise back up to the 100 MPG range. Anyway, it would be fun to play around with. A small car best used as a local “grocery getter”.

Some time back Ponce told me that the future would involve traveling locally rather than the way Americans have been accustomed. You know, running 100 miles to grab a deal saving five bucks. Just plain bad business. You must be aware by now that the mass of Americans will only change when they are forced to.

I consider it an easy thing to anticipate Americans’ future needs forced upon them by finances. Europeans typically will buy a car with a 4 cylinder engine rather than a 6 cylinder one. There are very few of the latter; I know because for 20 years I have dealt with a German importer of auto engines, transmissions and other parts. He paints a quite different picture of European frugality. I was in Europe in the mid 70s and got a good idea of their mindset. For instance, in the mornings in Bern Switzerland, the roads were filled with bicyclists on the way to work. You won’t see that here and I would be surprised to see it in the future since Americans are so fascinated by and used to auto transportation.

This is why I tend to think of high MPG autos rather than starting a bicycle shop. Also, people need to haul heavy items like groceries and using a car that gets 50 MPG or so would be more practical than a bicycle that couldn’t haul much. Besides, as I wrote somewhere in the foggy past, a shopping trip could be organized where 4 people could go together and the miles per gallon would effectively quadruple. In other words, ride sharing to shop may become popular as we have seen ride sharing to work has in the past. Being forced to belt tighten has all kinds of reactionary possibilities.

There is such an enormous savings in fuel usage to be had here in the U.S. if we will only use our heads. Another savings might be that these small cars use small tires and the other parts are waaay cheaper than those on the behemoth SUVs we see running around.

As far as I’m concerned, you don’t have to buy a new $30,000 hybrid car. To me, that’s stupid as well as unimaginative. “Hybrids” are here and cheap if you will think about it. I have $2,000 plus my labor in my rebuilt VW diesel truck. I have seen nice ones offered for about $1,500 to $3,000 that don’t need work.

On another topic, I went garage sailing the other day. Got 65 recent DVDs for a dollar each. Only two I would resell or give away. The lady wanted $3 each but I told her that I have been buying them for $1 each in quantity. She jumped at this and I quickly went through the stacks while other buyers got wind of what I was doing. I was fortunate and didn’t get pushed aside in the feeding frenzy like what had happened a few weeks earlier. This time, my technique was different; before negotiating with the seller I looked over the DVDs and knew which ones I wanted. So by the time others could act, I had almost all of mine set aside. I tell ya, it gets crazy every time I do this. Hope this helps your “crowd management”. See ? I’m still learning and refining my methods, even after all the years I’ve been buying. The key is to be always looking for better ways to make the flow from them to you take place as smoothly and as uninterrupted as possible.

And NEVER forget to ask “What else do you have for sale”. And NEVER forget your list of things you are looking for, to ask the seller if he or she has or knows where such items may be.

Also got a timing light, American made, and a tach/dwell/ohm meter for a total of $5. This was on my list and rather than spent over $100 for new ones, I waited and watched for the last few weeks. Also remember that the savings wasn’t $95 but more like twice that since If I had bought this equipment new, I would had to have worked to make $200 or so before taxes. A penny saved was two pennies earned, to paraphrase Ben Franklin.

Also got about 25 Disney videos for about 25 cents each. I am filling in my collection as well as giving them to friends for their children. Don’t ever sell short your ability to pick up something that could brighten another life. It is at the top of my list in being successful.

At one stop, I got a free RV refrigerator that works on 12 and 110 volt. Took phone numbers for connections during the week when I get the time.

Does any of what I write about in bartering and horse trading require a high I.Q. ? No, No and No !

So you see, it only takes a willingness to get out there and learn to deal with people. If the economy is terrible, you can at least find things you need rather than pay a fortune which you probably don’t have by now with BO planning to tax the living snot out of us all. You don’t have to be buying for resale unless you find a screaming deal.

Oh, almost forgot. Got a portable color TV with an attached DVD player for the car. I actually bought it since it works from 110V and 12V. I could run it with a car battery if house electric went out. It also came with the harness to install it in a car. Cost ? $20.

At one of my last stops, there was a lot of uninteresting stuff. I was about to leave when I eyed a factory service manual for the 1996 Dodge pickup truck. About 1,400 pages. The best price I’ve found for this book at ABEbooks.com so far is $145 with shipping. I got the book for $3 !

It would be interesting to figure what it would cost for all the items I got yesterday had they been bought new at a store.


New used
65 DVDs_________________$650_______________$65
Timing light, dwell meter____$100_______________$ 5
RV refrigerator____________$250_______________free
Car TV w/DVD player_______$160_______________$20
Dodge service manual______$145_______________$ 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total__________________$1,305________________$93

This is just a WAG (wild ass guess) but you get the picture. Also, that’s NOT adding the 8% sales tax for the items in the new column. Another $104.

The DVDs I really can live without; admittedly an extravagance. We will watch them and either add to the collection or sell them to get money back; maybe a profit, maybe gifts. Free movies; better than renting and no return fees. The $10 price per DVD is an average of what you would pay in a store if they were new. At least that is here locally. It wasn’t too long ago that used DVDs were selling for $5 at garage sales. Tells me how soon some fad items take a beating. And how fast the economy is taking a black swan dive.

The timing light and dwell meter I really need.
The RV refrigerator I need for my motor home.
The car TV I want in case we lose house power and for the motorhome.
The Dodge service manual for research and when I buy my next Dodge diesel truck.

There were also several small items I didn’t mention but they were things I can use around the house and for the cars. Petty items like gas cans, tools, Craftsman drill and sander, etc. By the way, the drill and sander were one dollar each.

What looks like a bargain now may be a loser in a few months. Depends on the purchasing power of the fiat dollar. So be careful out there. Bartering and horse trading is supposed to be fun as well as profitable.

Best wishes,

Agnut

To know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have succeeded.
--Ralph Waldo Emerson

On Feb 4 in post #601 of this thread I wrote to MNeagle that I had written about what I had predicted in 2007; hyperstagflation. It was a new description and not accepted at the time but I have stood steadfast in my belief. And now this word is being used to describe the pickle we are in. I take little satisfaction since if others had seen this in 2007 and acted accordingly, it would have made at least some moderate advantage.

But now I feel that I must warn that it is becoming very close to the time that those who have not readjusted their finances MUST GET OFF THE TRACKS. Or be run over.

The following article is written by Rodrigue Tremblay who is a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Montreal. My grandfather was a professor emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and I remember some talks with him in my younger days. These are not men to be taken lightly. The article below mentions the word “hyperstagflation” two times. In fact, Dr. Tremblay says, “What has arrived is the age of hyperstagflation.”. As plain and clear as it gets.

The Great Baby-Boomers Economic Stagnation of 2007-2017
by Prof Rodrigue Tremblay

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=14268

I believe that internet readers are just beginning to understand what hyperstagflation means and its consequences as it wreaks its havoc among the populace.

There are things we can do but they require us to believe the course the future will take rather than what the MSM and many advisors are saying.

Ask yourself what food prices will be in a year and if your income will increase with the food prices. If your wages do NOT keep up, you are being left behind. However, if you stock food preps now and prices keep rising, you will have made a “profit” on your food preps. Besides, this “profit” is sales tax free when you buy as well as income tax free when you consume. A win-win situation.

Ask yourself what you might possess that has a history of rising when fiat currency falls.

Ask yourself what physical items you may buy that will at least hold its purchasing power through time.

Ask yourself what people will need and not just want. Remember, I wrote that we as a society are moving from form to function. What will people need to function?

Ask yourself what you might produce or repair that people will need. A small business, possibly run from the home in order to minimize overhead.

Best wishes,

Agnut

Great photo there RandyMatt. Definitely frame-able. Guess the guy hanging by threads is the American public and the gators are the banksters and Wall Street horde. Dinner is served. A sort of perverted manna from above (not heaven, that‘s for sure).

You are right about the unemployed falling off the radar after their benefits run out. Which, of course, skews the statistics.

I posted a thread on the general sectioned entitled :

What Are The REAL Unemployment Figures ?

t=393114

I’d sure like to hear some feedback as to how valid/accurate my proposal is. To me, it is quite a shocker if true.

Best wishes,

agnut

Long time reader here Agnut.

Im going to a huge yard sale that includes an entire street with many families this weekend and I'm going to be using your advice. Hopefully I can finally turn up a deal or two. I find myself the type that has a huge risk aversion and its really tough for me to pull the trigger.

I've tried bargain hunting on Craigslist and have had absolutely zero luck. People either want way too much and refuse to come off the price, know exactly what the item is worth and won't come off the price, or want just enough so that there is no profit in it.

Ill keep trying.

Hi csrobbins. Funny that you are attending one of these neighborhood garage sales. I was at two last weekend, one right after the other.

There is a technique when attending these group sales. You might want to do a “drive buy” and check out all of the sales before spending time at any one.

Also note if the sales begin at 8:00 A.M., you might want to start at where other buyers may finish their buying tour. That way you will get the first look at items for sale before the mob comes through. Also, the seller will be anxiously watching you if you are the first buyer showing up. Of course, you will meet other buyers at the midpoint but you will have already cruised half of the sales before they even have a chance. Going against the flow can pay off here.

If your group sale is this Saturday, size up the neighborhood the day before and figure where you want to start as well as park your car.

As the group sale opens, scan the items displayed as you cruise by. Do NOT go in because you will be sucked in by conversation and pleasantries. Think like a window shopper; no salesmen and you can move on rapidly. Are there lots of baby and children’s toys, clothes, strollers ? Well, unless you’re in the market for a broken Tickle Me Elmo or have little ones of your own, I would recommend that you pass on such offerings. Parents with small children can’t afford nice things and even if they did, they will have teething marks and will have been dragged around by the rug rats for a couple of years.

Although it is fun to jawbone with others, it is best to operate like it is a business. Because it is a business. Your business. So be polite but keep moving on to new offerings.

Have your want list ready to ask sellers and always ask “What else do you have for sale ?” If I hadn’t asked a seller if he had any DVDs for sale a few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have the 93 DVDs sitting in my den right now. And for under a dollar each. Ask and ye shall receive.

After you have bought an item, you have to decide whether to carry it with you or pick it up later. Sellers are only too happy to set aside your paid for items. Just be sure they are not in a place where other buyers might mistake them for fair game. Tucked away in a bag or box with your name on them and labeled “SOLD” is a no brainer good idea. Best is to haul the items away as soon as the deal is made.

The idea is to move along as swiftly as possible without raising suspicion that you are on crack or speed. Try to not run over too many old ladies or rug rats. In other words, motorboat along, never getting up to making a wake. You want to see as much in as little time as possible. Don’t feel frustrated; the more you do this, the better you’ll get at it.

Note the time the group sale ends and just before that you may want to bargain hunt. That is, if there is anything left. In the past, good deals were gobbled up early. But lately there have been more sellers than buyers.

Never be anxious to conclude a deal; there will always be more down the road (literally). And with the economy in the state it is in (moribund comes to mind), there will be loads of things for sale in the next year or so. Remember that there is a lag time between when an economy begins to fall and when sellers become desperate. It’s like in my business where new car sales are horrible but we haven’t yet seen higher demand for repairing their used car transmissions. It will come; it just takes time to get into gear. That is, IF anyone has any money by that time.

Remember who you are buying for :

Yourself and your personal needs.

Potential customers. Screaming deals only; the market is soft

Friends and family. Gifts, non profit sales to them, birthday presents, bribes, etc. Don’t make these deals for money profit or you will lose. The profit is in the giving and sharing. Can’t put a price on giving a painting to a mom or sister. I have literally hundreds of items I could give away as gifts. I enjoy them for a while and pass them on to be loved and appreciated all over again.

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Just got back from some Friday garage sailing. Most people should be working but it was surprising how many were at each sale. And at 8:00 A.M. too ! Nothing interesting until the last sale. Got a 2 HP 220V Craftsman air compressor and a heavy monster airtight stove with pipes for a total price of $60. Also got a pair of solid oak end tables for $7.50 each. They were such high quality that I couldn’t pass them up; most everything is veneer and plastic these days.

The stove is for the garage this winter because I already have a smaller stove that is so nice that I’ll sell it going into the season as the weather turns cooler. Probably make a few hundred on that sale. An example of selling into the season and buying out of the season. Boats, sand buggies, jet skis, snowmobiles, winter clothes and wood stoves are a few of the seasonal items.

Almost forgot. I asked the first seller if she had any sterling silver and she said that she had lots but wouldn’t be putting it out for sale until two weeks from today. So that is marked on my calendar. However, may not be profitable at all if she is selling for above spot melt price. I can get all the sterling I want at spot price so why knock myself out looking for more ? Well, you never know; maybe there will be some major distracting event and I will be the only buyer there. Sometimes storms or power outages have a way of making buyers stay home.

Best wishes and happy hunting csrobbins,

Agnut

P.S. The Craigslist shopping is good for some things but not all. For example, I see DVDs offered for $5 on Craigslist when I have been buying them at garage sales in quantity for $1. Hmmm…. Wonder if it would be a moneymaker to set up a list on Craigslist for 100 or so DVDs and sell them for $4 each with the first paying postage and any additional DVDs free postage. This technique has worked for me in the past when I was selling antique micro mosaic jewelry. In the case of eBay I‘d put 40 auctions in and was amazed at how bidders would be more competitive with the prospects of free shipping for multiple buys. Made more sales and at higher prices too. Easier to ship too.

I’ve found cars, engines, transmissions, shop equipment, industrial shelves and other items on Craigslist. I don’t go after the small items; they can usually be found locally and aren‘t worth the time and gas.

Just a little report... I was skunked. Nothing but a bunch of junk and baby clothes.

Asking " Do you have anything else?", "like what?"

"Any generators, power tools, old silver coins, old jewlery, firearms just collecting dust?"

A bunch of funny looks, and one fellow even insisted I get off his property as fast as possible.

Ive been unemployed not by choice for sometime, I even broke down and applied at Mcdonalds, no one will call me back,

Ill keep trying to make some extra money this way, but its not going good.